The next few days should prove to be very interesting for the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Gustav was really weakened quite a bit by the high terrain of Haiti. His center floated considerably further south than most realized yesterday. This morning, that distancing has worked in Gustav’s favor. He has begun restrengthening. His vitals:
17.8N, 75.6W is where his center lies. That’s just off the east coast of Jamaica and 1S of where he was yesterday morning. This morning, his maximum sustained winds have increased back to 70mph. He is moving WSW @ 5mph. His central pressure is back down to 988mb.
Model output is in good agreement regarding the next day or two’s motion. Gustav should continue moving W to WNW, impacting Jamaica. The official track forecast has him moving just south of Jamaica, but he could move directly over the island instead. After that, his motion should be steady northwestward. Model solutions differ on his exact path in the region of Cuba still. He could make landfall over the western portion of the country or pass between the island and the Yucutan. That hasn’t changed much over the past 2-3 days.
The 4-5 day forecast is steadily moving closer to U.S. shores. Last night, the official track forecast wasn’t pretty. It indicated a landfall on Louisiana’s southern coast, southwest of New Orleans as a potential major hurricane. This morning, the official track forecast has been moved to the west slightly. It looks like Gustav could make landfall somewhere between Lake Charles, LA and Abbeville, LA. The envelope of model solutions has Gustav making landfall somewhere along the coast of Louisiana and it is this envelope that folks should be paying attention to. The intensity forecast has Gustav strengthening to at least Category 3 status by the time it is in the central Gulf of Mexico. It is likely, under current forecast projections, to be at that strength when he eventually makes landfall. As such, hurricane and tropical storm force winds will extend quite a ways from the center of the storm. The east and north sides of the storm will be especially dangerous. So landfall is currently projected to occur sometime on Tuesday. That could change, of course.
Activity is picking up somewhat across the Atlantic basin. Tropical Depression Eight has formed from the disturbance known as Invest-95. It is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength later today as it continues to get organized. If it does so, it would be designated Tropical Storm Hanna. This storm could strengthen further to hurricane status by Sunday. It’s current location is centered at 19.8N, 57.9W. It is moving WNW @ 4mph, has maximum sustained winds of 35mph, and its lowest pressure is estimated to be 1004mb. It is forecasted to turn more towards the west in the 4-5 day time range, though that’s pretty uncertain right now. If it does so, it would be moving west toward the Bahamas and Florida. We’ll see what happens.
There are three other disturbances scattered across the Atlantic: one in Gulf and one west of the Cape Verde Islands that have a 20% chance of developing within the next day. The third is just emerging off the west coast of Africa and has a 20-50% chance of development.
Continue reading →