Lots of changes in the Atlantic basin since yesterday. Gustav has continued to weaken, from Hurricane strength down through Tropical Storm and is a Tropical Depression this morning over the TX/LA border. Hanna strengthened to a Hurricane, then weakened back to a Tropical Storm. Then, Tropical Depression Nine formed between the Leeward Islands and the Cape Verde Islands. Then T.D. 9 strengthened and was named Tropical Storm Ike. Then T.D. 10 organized from Invest-99 between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa. Development didn’t stop there: T.D. 10 strengthened and Tropical Storm Josephine formed. That’s all in less than 18 hours. The Atlantic basin is pretty much full of storms.
Let’s start with Tropical Depression Gustav’s vitals: center located at 31.7N, 93.4W; maximum sustained winds of 35mph; moving NW @ 10mph; minimum pressure of 985mb. Gustav’s main threat now is lots of rain that could cause flooding. A secondary threat remains tornadoes. Gustav is forecasted to curve toward the northeast over the next five days, but the distance covered shouldn’t be too great. He should move into northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, then western Arkansas by early Friday morning.
Yesterday, Hanna was a Category 1 hurricane. She stalled off the eastern side of the Bahamas as her steering currents weakened. She followed by weakening back to a Tropical Storm, where she remains this morning. Steering has picked back up this morning and Hanna is back on the move. Her vitals: center located at 21.0N, 73.5W; maximum sustained winds of 70mph; moving WSW @ 5mph; minimum pressure of 987mb.
Hanna is forecasted to begin moving back toward the northwest later today, then continue that general movement through the next few days. She is also forecasted to regain hurricane strength by tomorrow afternoon as she moves through the Bahamas. From Thursday to Friday, Hanna should be moving by the east coast of Florida, but no landfall is expected on that state. Sometime during the day on Friday, Hanna is expected to come ashore along the Georgia border, an event that is very rare due to the orientation of the coast and the climatological movement of storms along the eastern seaboard. By the time Hanna reaches the Georgia/South Carolina border, the model track solutions diverge. Some show her moving into West Virginia before curving toward the northeast. Some show her moving through the Carolinas before turning northeast and along the east coast. That’s some time away, so the details will have to wait.