Weatherdem's Weblog

Bridging climate science, citizens, and policy

Atlantic Tropical Weather 2010: 17th Storm Forms In Caribbean

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Tropical Storm Richard has formed in the western Caribbean, between Honduras and Jamaica.  T.S. Richard is the 17th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic season.

Tropical Storm Richard is projected to strengthen to hurricane strength within the next 2 days.  As this happens, he is expected to move toward the west.  After Saturday, then-Hurricane Richard should curve toward the northwest.  He could possibly make landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday or Monday.  Three model solutions have this track.  Alternatively, he could make a turn more toward due north and pass between the Yucatan and Cuba on his way into the Gulf of Mexico.  Two other models have this solution.  As local ridges and troughs move and pass by, Richard could make his way across the entire Gulf of Mexico.  The potential for a U.S. mainland landfall sometime next week cannot at this time be ruled out.

As usual, intensity and track forecasts out past 3 days are notoriously error-prone.  A lot of things can happen in that time frame.  The best thing to do is be aware this storm has formed and keep an eye on his progress over the next handful of days.

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