Tropical Depression One has formed off the coast of Honduras in the western Caribbean Sea. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined central circulation. The system continues to get better organized by the hour with large rainbands extending hundreds of miles away from the center. TD1 is still expected to move northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday the 27th. Thereafter, the official National Hurricane Center track forecast splits the difference of the two model solutions discussed below and keeps the storm on a general north-westerly track through the Gulf.
A disturbance that has made its way across the entire Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea has finally developed a surface circulation and has sustained thunderstorms around it. Currently identified as Invest 93L, it could be designated Tropical Depression 1 of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Invest 93L’s center is currently located near 16.9N, 82.9W. It is moving NW @ 5mph and has maximum winds of 35mph. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Recon plane was sent to the system earlier today to see if it is organized enough to be classified as a Tropical Depression.
Numerical model solutions differ on its future. 3 of them take the system over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, then show the storm turning more westerly toward Mexico or southern Texas. 3 others also take the system over the Yucatan and into to Gulf, but then the storm moves north under influence from an upper-level trough projected to move across the eastern U.S. after this weekend. The result is two storm tracks that are nearly exactly opposite each other. Obviously, we will have to wait until the storm has moved over the Yucatan to have a better idea of its long-term path. Once it clears the Peninsula, it should be a weak Tropical Depression again; models are projecting a re-intensification over the very warm Gulf waters.