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Bridging climate science, citizens, and policy

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 8/30/09

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The Atlantic hurricane season is in medium- to high-gear.  While Tropical Depression Danny was being absorbed by a synoptic low moving off the U.S. coast, a vigorous tropical wave has been moving west across the Atlantic basin.  This wave has slowly grown more organized as it has made its trek westward.

At this time, Invest-94 is located 850 miles east of the Windward Islands.  It loosely looks like a tropical storm with the stirrings of potential rain bands moving around a central low pressure site.

Invest-94’s center is located near 12.6N, 48.3W; is moving WNW @ 11mph; and has maximum sustained winds of 30mph.

Invest-94 should continue moving WNW or NW over the next few days.  This expected path would put it near the northern Windward Islands in two to three days.  It has the potential to impact Puerto Rico in days 4-5.  It could also just as well steer north of the islands and remain over the Atlantic, like Bill did earlier this season.

Invest-94 is forecasted to continue to organize and strengthen over the next 3-5 days, becoming a tropical depression in the next day, a tropical storm a day or so after that and even a hurricane in the last part of the forecast period.  Water temperatures are more than warm enough to sustain a hurricane – over 28C waters now, 29C waters in days 2-5.  Wind shear is expected to remain minimal over the next few days, so Invest-94 should have nothing in its way to prevent it from strengthening.

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