Weatherdem's Weblog

Bridging climate science, citizens, and policy

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 8/11/09

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Tropical Depression Two has formed in the Atlantic basin.  Here are the details:

Center located at 14.6N, 29.6W; moving W @ 13mph; maximum sustained winds of 30mph; minimum pressure of ~1006mb.

T.D. 2 should stay near 15°N for the next couple of days or so before turning toward the northwest.  Historically, storm that form near the Cape Verdes Islands, as T.D. 2 has done, stay far out to sea.  Only two storms have eventually made it all the way to the U.S. coast: Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Hurricane Dennis in 1981.  Both formed closer to 10°N.  In fact, most storms like T.D. 2 don’t even impact the Caribbean.  Sunday morning should find T.D. 2 near 20°N, 50°W.

In the meantime, T.D. 2 should strengthen to Tropical Storm status, making it the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic season: Tropical Storm Ana.  We’ll see if that comes to pass.

There are now two other areas of low interest in the Atlantic basin: the first of which I talked about yesterday near the Windward Islands and the second to its east.  Both areas are being given <30% chance of forming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.  Both exist in a pretty dry environment, limiting the amount of organized convection that can be sustained.

Finally, another tropical wave is leaving the African coast and is heading west over open water.  Given the time of year, every wave has the potential to develop.

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