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Bridging climate science, citizens, and policy

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 6/27/09

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An area of low pressure has been spinning up convection the past couple of days in the Carribean Sea.  It has slowly become more organized in the process and could become a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.  Here is a look at Invest 93:

Centered approximately near 19.9N, 87.3W; maximum sustained winds of about 30mph; moving NW @11mph.

There is more than enough heat content in the Carribean and the Gulf of Mexico to support a tropical storm/hurricane.  But it has to stay over water to do so.  Given it’s current path and projected motion, Invest 93 could move over the Yucutan Peninsula in the next day before moving back over open water tomorrow.  There is a wide disagreement between models, but the solutions really boil down to two possible paths:  continue moving northwesterly across the Gulf of Mexico and move toward Mexico/Texas or take an eventual turn to the northeast and move toward Florida.

This would be the 2nd tropical depression of the 2009 Atlantic season.  TD1 formed just about one month ago off the east coast of the U.S.


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