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Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 10/14/08

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[Update 4P MDT]:

Not too much to update this afternoon.  There haven’t been any surprises today in terms of intensification of existing storm or development of new storms.  I’ll start with a review of storm vitals:

T.D. Nana has officially become disorganized enough so that the NHC isn’t monitoring it anymore.  A weak area of disturbed weather remains to her south.  Development isn’t likely to occur there in the next 12-24 hours.

Tropical Storm Omar continues to strengthen today.  His center is now located at 14.0N, 68.5W; he has maximum sustained winds of 70mph, just below hurricane strength; he is now moving ENE @ 7mph.  T.S. Omar looks very impressive on satellite imagery this afternoon.  A very large area of cold cloud tops can be seen.  A couple times today I thought that perhaps the center of the storm was becoming visible as cloud top temperatures were warm over a limited area, but no definitive eye has formed that I can tell.

T.S. Omar’s path still should take him to Puerto Rico’s east, over the Virgin Islands.  Due to the strengthening that occurred today, however, he is now expected to do so as a hurricane.  By the time he makes it to the Islands, on Thursday, Omar could be a Category 2 storm.  Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Antilles.  Interestingly, I can’t find evidence of an October storm moving northeast from the Caribbean into the Atlantic in the historical records.  That doesn’t mean much, I just wanted to point it out.

Tropical Depression Sixteen is still moving through the southwest Carribean off the Honduran coast and is expected to organize into a Tropical Storm sometime tomorrow.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

***

There are a couple of storms and disturbances in the Atlantic this morning.  Temperatures remain warm enough for tropical development across the southern North Atlantic.  Starting with Tropical Depression Nana’s vitals:

Center located at 18.4N, 43.3W; maximum sustained winds of 30mph; moving WNW @ 14mph.

T.D. Nana continues to spin away in the central Atlantic at just below Tropical Storm strength.  She will continue to do so over the next 36 hours or so.  She isn’t expected to threaten any human population centers.

Tropical Storm Omar has strengthened from Tropical Depression 15 overnight, as expected.  His vitals:

Center located at 14.0N, 69.0W; maximum sustained winds of 40mph; moving ESE @ 2mph; minimum pressure of 1001mb.  Omar looks more organized on satellite imagery today.

T.S. Omar is still expected to begin moving toward the NE later today.  Due to his meandering overnight, his path is no longer forecasted to take him directly over Puerto Rico.  Instead, his official track forecast takes him to the east of Puerto Rico, which would take him over or just to the east of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and to the west of Anguila.  Once he moves past the Islands, Omar is forecasted to continue strengthening to hurricane status.  In contrast to yesterday’s forecasts, Omar is now forecasted to maintain hurricane strength for the remainder of the 5-day period.  His projected track takes Omar toward the NE throughout the 5-day period.  Whether or not that holds after Day 3 is mostly irrelevant – Omar will be in the middle of the Atlantic, far away from any landmass.

Okay, the Atlantic isn’t finished there.  Tropical Depression Sixteen formed overnight from the disturbance nearby Nicaragua and Honduras.  Here are T.D. 16’s vitals as of this morning:

Center located at 15.6N, 83.0W; maximum sustained winds of 30mph; movingNW @ 7mph; minimum pressure of 1004mb.  T.D. 16 is characterized by a broad area of convection.  Those features should become more organized throughout the day.

T.D. 16 is forecasted to continue organizing and strengthening over the next 24-36 hours.  The official intensity forecast brings it to Tropical Storm status by tomorrow morning.  The official track forecast takes the T.D./T.S. NW along the Honduras coast in the next 24 hours, then W along the northern Honduran coast until coming ashore along the Belize coast Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm.

I should mention that a small area of disturbed weather to the south of T.D. Nana is being watched.  T.D. Nana could absorb this disturbance as most of the models show it moving north toward Nana.  Right now, there aren’t any other disturbances worth mentioning.  That’s a pretty busy basin for October.

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One thought on “Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 10/14/08

  1. Pingback: Nicaragua San Juan del Sur

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