Weatherdem's Weblog

Bridging climate science, citizens, and policy

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 10/13/08

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The Atlantic Tropical season is not over, as I postulated about one week ago.  Conditions have shifted over the Atlantic that have made the environment more conducive to storm development.  As such, there is a Tropical Storm and a Tropical Depression in the basin.  Starting with the T.S.:

Tropical Storm Nana is centered at 17.5N, 40.6W, has maximum sustained winds of 35mph and is moving WNW @ 9mph.  T.S. Nana is fairly well organized, but on the small side.  Nana is the 14th named storm of the season.  This storm is expected to remain organized for about 36 more hours before degrading.  She is well out in the Atlantic, providing no threats to any human population centers.

Tropical Depression 15 is a different story.  It’s centered at 14.5N, 69.4W, and has maximum sustained winds of 35mph.  T.D. Fifteen is expected to organize into a Tropical Storm in the next 12 hours, making it Tropical Storm Omar.  T.D. 15 is forecasted to move NW over the next 12-24 hours and NE thereafter.  It could threaten Puerto Rico Wedensday afternoon as a Tropical Storm before moving from the Caribbean into the Atlantic.  After that, T.D. 15 could strengthen into a hurricane, the 7th of the season.  It is forecasted to continue moving NE through the Atlantic, weakening again shortly after gaining hurricane status.  After affecting Puerto Rico and other northeastern Caribbean islands, T.D. 14 isn’t expected to have any land impacts in the 5-day forecast period.

An additional disturbance that is likely to develop further is located to T.D. 15’s west, by Honduras and Nicaragua.  It is moving north and could develop into a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours.

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