[Update 10:30P MDT]:
There was nothing terribly critical with the NHC’s 11P update.
Tropcial Storm Hanna looks more and more certain to make landfall along the North Carolina coast as a Tropical Storm overnight Friday into Saturday.
The last part of Hurricane Ike‘s forecast (Tuesday night) hints at a possible southern Florida landfall, possibly as a major hurricane. I don’t think the intensity models have properly accounted for these conditions. Ike should pass over these cooler waters after he stops battling the northeasterly wind shear he’s currently facing. As time has gone by, Ike’s official track at the end of the period hasn’t curved back toward the NW or N. This means there is the possibility that Ike could roll over Florida and re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico after Tuesday. The suite of model track solutions still shows large variability by the third day. One model continues to show a glancing landfall off Cuba’s north coast. One shows Ike moving through the Florida Strait after running over the Bahamas. Three keep Ike out in the Atlantic. And one shows Ike moving nearly due west over the next five days. Some fairly substantial discrepancies will have to be ironed out, and this should happen in the next day or two.
Tropical Storm Josephine has slowly started moving slightly north of due west, with no chance of affecting any kind of land within the next week. Here are all the storms’ vitals:
Tropical Strom Hanna’s center is located at 26.5N, 76.3W; has maximum sustained winds of 65mph; is moving NW @ 14mph; and has a minimum pressure of 987mb.
Hurricane Ike’s center is located at 23.6N, 59.5W; still has maximum sustained winds of 135mph; is moving W @ 14mph; and has a minimum pressure of 945mb.
Tropical Storm Josephine’s center is located at 15.1N, 33.8W; has maximum sustained winds of 45mph; is moving WNW @ 10mph; and has a minimum pressure of 1002mb.
Earlier update and original post below the fold.