Tropical Storm Arthur has formed. For the past week, water temperatures south of Cuba’s southern coast and west of it’s eastern coast has averaged over 28C, warm enough to support the heat energy required by tropical storms. The Bay of Campeche is warmer still: over 29C. All that was needed was more favorable upper air conditions. Those conditions have at least temporarily come together.
Arthur basically made landfall right after designation on the east coast of Belize. The associated low pressure system is forecasted to move across the Yucatan peninsula and reemerge over water (southern Gulf) Sunday or Monday. If it does, it has the chance to restrengthen to weak tropical storm force before making second landfall somewhere over Mexico’s coast.
More information can be found at the Tropical Prediction Center.