Atlantic Tropical Weather – 6/29/2010: Tropical Storm Alex

Tropical Storm Alex has pulled away from the Yucatan Peninsula and the shallow Gulf of Mexico quickly today.  He hasn’t strengthened to hurricane status quite yet, but is close to doing so.  At this point, it is unlikely that he will strengthen to major hurricane status prior to landfall.

T.S. Alex’s current position is 22.9N, 93.6W; is moving NW @ 13mph; has sustained winds of 70mph; has a central pressure of 981mb, which is low for a Tropical Storm.

T.S. Alex should continue to turn more westerly through the next couple of days.  His official track forecast brings him ashore along the Mexican coast, though the specific landfall keeps moving north with successive model forecasts.

T.S. Alex should keep strengthening over the next day, prior to landfall, making hurricane strength later today but not quite getting to Category 2 status.  Thus, he should make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane somewhere in northeastern Mexico.

Storm surge is already impacting the Gulf coast of the U.S. with <3′ surge along the LA coast and increasing to 3-6′ surges further south along the TX coast.

6/28/10 post.

6/26/10 post.

6/25/10 post.

Atlantic Tropical Weather – 6/28/2010 #1: Tropical Storm Alex In Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alex moved fairly quickly over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, entering the Gulf of Mexico last night.  He also maintained his integrity very well while over land.  Banding features and central low development actually continued while transiting the peninsula.  Thus, T.D. Alex reintensified into T.S. Alex just prior to moving back over water.

T.S. Alex’s current position is 20.3N, 91.7W; his maximum sustained winds are 60mph; is moving NNW @ 6mph; and his central pressure is now 989mb.

The lowering central pressure and resulting increasing wind speeds indicate that Alex will continue to intensify as he moves over the warm Gulf waters and enjoys upper-level venting support.  Whereas forecasts last week had Alex remaining as a Tropical Storm until his eventual landfall, it now looks like Alex will strengthen into the 2010 season’s first hurricane.  If conditions remain favorable, Alex could even intensify into the season’s first major hurricane also (>= Category 3 strength).

T.S. Alex’s official track forecast over the next 3 days takes him on a gently arcing path through the southern Gulf of Mexico, potentially making landfall near the Mexico/Texas coast this Thursday.  After 3 days, the storm is projected to move near the Mexican/Texas border through Saturday.  There remains considerable division in model track solutions with some showing something akin to the official track forecast while others show a marked turn to the north as the storm approaches land.  At this time, the only effect that has is to shift the point of landfall further north along the Texas coast.

T.S. Alex’s official intensity forecast calls for a Category 1 storm to form by tomorrow morning and a Category 2 storm by Wednesday morning.  He is projected to make landfall as a hurricane Thursday morning.  Interestingly, it looks as though most intensity models show Alex strengthening to just below hurricane strength.  The official forecast relies more on models that have performed the best in past years.

Alex’s growing windfield will begin impacting the Gulf oil disaster in the next couple of days.  Winds will turn easterly and increase in strength, even though Alex is hundreds of miles away from the disaster site itself.  This will have the effect of pushing oily water back into the coasts of LA/MS/AL.

Atlantic Tropical Weather – 6/26/2010: Tropical Storm Alex Forms

As of 5A EDT this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression One to Tropical Storm Alex.  A hurricane hunter aircraft found flight-level winds of 46kts and satellite-derived near-surface winds were estimated to be 35kts.  With those two indicators, and given the storm’s organization, the 2010 season’s first tropical storm has officially formed.

Alex’s center is currently located at 17.0N, 85.3W.  His maximum sustained winds are 40mph; moving WNW @ 8mph.  His central pressure is ~1004mb.

Not much has changed for T.S. Alex’s projected track or intensity for the next few days.  He is expected to continue moving WNW to NW over the next three days.  Given his current position – north of Honduras in the western Caribbean – this will take Alex over either Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  While over land, Alex will weaken back into a Tropical Depression.  The official track forecast has Alex entering the Gulf of Mexico sometime Monday morning, then continuing more or less in the same direction through Wednesday.  Beyond that, the track guidance is still a little split, but a lot more of them keep Alex in the western Gulf than in the eastern Gulf than was the case yesterday.

Once Alex re-emerges over water, he should reintensify from a Tropical Depression back into a Tropical Storm.  Landfall could occur along the Mexican coast later in the week as a Tropical Storm.

In the meantime, Alex is dumping plenty of rain in Central America.  With inches of rain falling per hour in the heaviest rainbands, flash flooding will be the primary threat to residents there.