Economic Numbers Come Out Just Prior to 2008 Election

What will their effect be?  I think they will act as a final reminder to folks that the cons’ economic policies need go no further.  People do want change.  They want to be able to afford their groceries, their gas and their healthcare.  None of them are more affordable now than they were 8 years ago.  They want to have money to retire with and they have seen their pensions and 401k’s eviscerated by the cons.  The numbers that were released today show nothing different than what we’ve seen over the past six weeks.  Here they are:

The economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.3% from July through September.  The previous quarter’s number was +2.8%, but you can’t really compare the two.  Remember, the 2nd quarter saw all the economic stimulus checks beings sent out and spent.  It was a one-time deal and that’s confirmed by the 3rd quarter number.  Without those stimulus checks, the 2nd quarter GDP numbers were likely closer to 0.  Economists are predicting the next two quarters will likely be negative also.  We’re already in a recession.  Most Americans have come to this conclusion, I think.  I doubt we’ll get confirmation of it from the cons, however.  Bush’s crew is likely to let that announcement slide to an Obama administration.

Jobless claims for the week again totaled nearly 500,000.  Unemployment is September was reported at 6.1%, but is expected to increase in the months ahead, possibly to 8%.  Unfortunately, the official unemployment number neglects some aspects of the true labor market.  The actual unemployment number is probably a couple percentage points higher.  Tack on underemployment and the actual condition of labor can be assessed – it’s likely to be 12% or greater.

Here’s a headline that should surprise no one: State budget gaps widening as economy slumps.  As a result of the insane tax policies of the cons, the federal budget has been over-allocated.  That has left state budgets stretched thin during the “expansion” of the previous decade.  There wasn’t an expansion and services were required to cover additional people.  Something has to give.  Either the tax-zealots win and services disappear or taxes are raised and services survive (at lower strength perhaps).  This illuminates the biggest problem with cons’ economics: if public services are halted, people will be forced to buy services from the private sector.  Umm, real wages haven’t risen in more than 8 years.  Where exactly are people supposed to get the money to buy those services, because their cost will assuredly increase (that’s what happens in a capital economy, after all).  When people vote, they need to think about how they want to pay for services.  If everybody invests in them with tax dollars, the government can provide them at a low cost.  If everybody is on their own, the private sector will provide them at great cost.  Which means those providing the services will get richer while the rest of us get poorer.  Or people will just be plain unable to get those services.  Services that include education; health care.  How about the police and fire deparments?  Should those be privatized?

[Update]:

Let me present one more economic number: Big Oil Profits for the 3rd quarter.  Remember, the economy went into the crapper, hundreds of thousands of people have lost their jobs and foreclosures are happening at record numbers.  Along with all of that, ExxonMobil once again posted the largest 3-month profit in human history, beating their own record set in the previous quarter.  Just how much did Exxon make in 3 months?  $14.83 billion.  What was their record last quarter?  $11.68 billion.  How about during the 3rd quarter last year?  $9.41 billion.  Did your income go up 58% in the last year?  Because Exxon’s did.  How about 27% more in July-September than April-June?  Exxon did.  And that is only 1 oil corporation – only 1!!  That’s what $4.00 gas did this past summer: it stuffed the pockets of the most profitable corporations even further.  Remember the Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989?  They finally paid some money on that disaster: $170 million.  That’s only 1% of their profit in the last three months.  Pathetic.  Immoral.

Climate Change Occurring Faster Than Predicted & Other Climate-Related News

Additional examples of how out-of-date the 2007 IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report was at the time of release continue to be issued.  The latest: a World Wildlife Fund report which acts as a summary of recent scientific papers and reports.  The summary: climate change is occurring faster than was presented by the IPCC last year.  Indeed, NOAA recently released an arctic report that identifies stronger effects of warming on Greenland and permafrost.  The next IPCC Report will be released in 2013, meaning most of the work towards it will be done during the next President’s term.  Actions taken during the next four years will have ramifications on the future state of the climate.  Recognizing that the 2007 Report has already underestimated the impacts of human-forced climate change should harden the next administration’s actions.

On a related note, a slowing economy won’t help the climate.  Emissions don’t just have to dip for a short while.  They have to stop.  Then the GHGs that we have already emitted have to be put into a emission-sink.  The oceans are nearly at capacity for carbon, so large challenges remain.

Obama is set to declare CO2 a dangerous pollutant.  Good.  The action could stop plans to build dozones of coal plant.  Obama’s energy adviser, Jason Grumet, said that if Congress didn’t act within 18 months, Obama would take action by himself.  My question: why wait 18 months?  We simply don’t have the time.  I understand that Obama is making clear his respect for the legislature’s role, but 18 months is a ridiculous amount of time when the Bush administration has spent the past 8 years making sure we took no action.  At the same, I realize how important it is to have a Presidential candidate with a serious energy adviser.

Europe toughens GHG goals, not allowing economic slowdown to delay their activities.  Good for them.  Plenty of CONServatives in the U.S. are already saying the recession precludes any action on GHG emission goals, or any other climate change action.  Will America follow Europe’s lead?

Economy: Post Bail-Out & Election: Post VP-Debate

There was a lot of news and commentary this weekend after Bush’s Bailout was passed and Sarah Palin demonstrated just how unknowledgable she is about important domestic and foreign policies.  The economy has been bad for average Americans for years and this election is critical.  So I’m going to stay on top of both issues by pointing to aspects of news and commentary I found.  I’ll update this post throughout the day due to the volume of material I want to cover.

1. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer were profiled in the Rocky Mountain News. Here’s a short bio on both: Rep. Udall has spent a good portion of his career trying to improve our energy policies – in Colorado first, and then nationally.  There is a long road to walk until we have a renewable energy-based society, which is needed for a healthy climate and national securtiy.  Mark Udall will make a decent Senator (note I didn’t say good or great.  I have real problems with his centrist approach in general and his recent vote to retroactively immunize telecom corporations who illegally wiretapped domestic traffic).  Bob Schaffer used to be a Jack Abramoff yes-man.  His actions tell us he is in favor of forced abortions, sweatshops and fossil fuels.  His past is well-paved with corruption and Colorado can’t afford to have a 20th century fringe CONservative blocking work to move forward in the 111th Congress.

2. Bush admitted on Friday as he signed his Bailout that the legislation is just “the beginning”. Really?  The beginning of what, exactly?  The beginning of more taxpayers Bailouts of immoral corporate gambling?  Overall, Americans recognized this Bailout is just that.  There is no part of the legislation that addresses the actual problems in the economy.  No homeowner assitance.  No path towards more jobs.  No increase in income.  The Bush administration will not prosecute the fools that set up this economic collapse.  The bottom line: trickle-down (voodoo) economics does not work.  Dumping larger sums of money at the top will not make any more fall to the bottom.

3. The Bailout passed because of the tax breaks attached to it. There are many reasons why that fact is odious, but I’ll focus on one for now: all of them already exist.  That’s correct: the tax breaks were merely extensions!  Entities like the Denver Post, in fact, spent more time opining about the tax breaks than they did about the underlying Bailout.  The Senate hadn’t extended any of the tax breaks all year, but managed to stick it on the Bailout so it would pass.  Oh, the corporate media also hasn’t reported the reason those extensions hadn’t passed all year: a CONservative Senator from Oklahoma issued a record number of filibuster threats this Congress.  One person alone managed to hold up about 100 necessary bills.  All so the CONS could run ads saying Congress didn’t do anything all year.  CONS put all their focus on elections and none of their focus on governing.

Geothermal, Recession, Inflation & McCain is still Struggling

Climate Progress had a good post up the other day regarding geothermal power‘s advances recently. Though not as robust as solar or wind, geothermal is slowly gaining popularity and accessibility. Some quick numbers: “manufacturers shipped 63,682 geothermal heat pumps (GHP) in 2006, a 33 percent increase over the 2005 total of 47,830″ (from U.S. Energy Information Administration). I’m glad to see an increase, but 64,000 GHPs is still quite a small number out of the total number of households nationwide. Geothermal is part of the solution to reduce our fossil fuel usage.

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bonddad explains why he thinks the U.S. is currently in a recession, despite the lack of “official word” from up-high. Personal incomes, job growth, industrial production and two major export markets are all in the mix. I’ve thought we were in a recession for a while and bonddad’s explanation provides additional reasoning why that is.

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In news that should shock no one, big-time inflation is still around.  Inflation hit 5.6% in July, up from 5% in June.  The last time inflation was that high?  During the previous Bush’s administration.  Like father, like son, goes the old adage.  About the only thing that might hold this inflation in check?  The recession.  How wonderful!  We have prices increasing at rates our incomes can’t keep up with, and that’s if we can keep our jobs.  Thanks for the awesome economy, Republicans!

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John McCain hasn’t polled better than 44% support during this race. 44% isn’t going to get him elected President, especially when Barack Obama continually garners 47-49% support and has never trailed McCain. Yet the corporate media would have you believe they’re continually tied and Barack is the candidate with all the problems. Without explanation, pundits are holding a 10% bar up for Obama and criticizing him for not reaching it. Reality has a well-known liberal bias. That will be on display this November when McCain loses.