Weather Extremes and Public Policy

The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote a story yesterday about New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s choices while the NJ coast is rebuilt post-Sandy.  As a scientist, I agree with other experts that planners need to incorporate climate change projections in their work.  As a scientist transitioning to public policy, I agree with Gov. Christie that the causal link between climate change and Sandy doesn’t matter to victims of the storm in the immediate aftermath.  What does matter?  Today’s infrastructure is clearly not capable of withstanding today’s weather extremes, as Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy demonstrated.  Both disasters showed it doesn’t matter whether sub-standard infrastructure protects a location (New Orleans) or whether standard or better infrastructure (NY & NJ) does.  The first issue is our standards, not the weather.  The second issue is mitigation and adaptation to a changing climate.

Of course politics are involved.  Gov. Christie’s reelection is this upcoming November.  If victims think their needs are unmet or the NJ coast is not open for tourism this summer, his reelection chances will take a hit.  This political reality will butt up against physical reality.  Sandy occurred in today’s climate.  She wasn’t particularly strong at landfall as hurricanes go in the Atlantic basin (nowhere near Hurricane Katrina or other historic storms).  A unique set of weather events combined to amplify Sandy’s effects.

The mid-20th century buildup of human infrastructure along the coast with minimal consideration of severe weather effects drove Sandy’s costs.  Without buildings abutting the ocean, the storm surge would not have damaged anything but wilderness (which we evidently don’t value).  It is foolish to rebuild buildings  without consideration of today’s severe weather.  It is more foolish to not plan for tomorrow’s climate, but it is Gov. Christie’s prerogative to choose his own vision.  What should planners include?

Proper preparation could mean “hardening” infrastructure (moving power lines underground, for example), forbidding construction in flood zones, modifying building codes, and lifting homes off the ground onto pilings. It could mean relocating people to denser developments that are less flood prone or building sea walls on the coast.

If people want to build in flood zones, the rest of us should not bail them out post-disaster.  Risky behavior requires appropriate responsibility for engaging in that behavior.  Some areas might not be safely inhabitable.  It is the government’s responsibility to determine those areas’ locations and issue building permits and assign zones accordingly.  In addition to sea walls, planners should include natural barriers to storm surge.

If sea level rises an additional four feet off the NJ coast, what are the implications for NJ infrastructure (i.e., risk and cost)?  We build infrastructure to last 100 years, so we should require robust planning and construction.  How many citizens are put at risk with each foot of sea level rise?  Do New Jersey residents want to invest in the near-term to reduce long-term risk or do they want to confront that long-term risk at some undetermined point in the future?  What about the rest of Americans?  Our elected officials decided to spend $60 billion on post-Sandy work.  Is that the best use of that money?  Do we want to spend some of that $60 billion on adaptation measures, and if so how much?

The article includes this (emphasis mine):

Meanwhile, Christie faces pushback from a significant interest group, environmentalists, who want a public planning process to determine the future of the Shore. They want decisions made based on science, not politics.

This is a classic environmentalist complaint.  Every decision includes politics.  Climate science is largely federally funded.  Decision makers are largely politicians.  Zoning is political.  There is no pure aspect of science that can issue a non-political decision.  The appeal to scientific purity is a trait of mainstream environmentalism, but it is just as biased as skeptics’ call for no climate science input into decision-making.  Science describes and politics prescribes.  The two are naturally different and intertwined in our technically advanced society.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Gulf of Mexico Loop Current

NOAA has issued their last pre-season projection for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.  In short, a very active season is possible.  Here are the highlights:

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

14-23 Named Storms,

8-14 Hurricanes

3-7 Major Hurricanes

An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

I like to see numbers in context.  I’ll start with the 14-23 named storms.  On average, 11 storms are named every year.  The most active Atlantic hurricane season on record was 2005 – the same year of Katrina, Rita and Wilma – when there were 31 named storms.  The first storm formed on the 8th of June and the last storm dissipated on the 6th of January, 2006!   For those unfamiliar with hurricane naming conventions in the Atlantic, see this page.  The set available this year are the same as those used in 2004.  So if there are 14 named storms, Nicole will be the last of 2010.  If there are 23, then just like 2005, the list of names will be exhausted.  In 2005, storms after Wima were assigned Greek alphabet names.  That convention could be used again this year if things get really ramped up.

There were 15 hurricanes in 2005.  So this season’s projection calls for fewer hurricanes (tropical storm systems that attain 74mph sustained winds) than 2005.  Last season, there were only 3 hurricanes.  2008 saw 8 hurricanes form – so this year could be more similar to that year.  The average number of hurricanes per year is 6.

3-7 major hurricanes – those are big numbers.  The average number of major hurricanes per year is 2.  A major hurricane is one that reaches Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Storms typically have a minimum of 111mph sustained winds.  Of those 8 hurricanes in 2008, 5 reached major hurricane status: Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Omar and Poloma.  Of the 15 hurricanes in 2005, 7 reached major hurricane strength.  The difference between 2005 and 2008 in terms of number of major storms then was only 2.  A lot of factors determine how strong hurricanes get.  So the difference between 2 major hurricanes and 3 is a lot more than just a number.

The ACE measurement is a relatively new one.  It is the Accumulated Cycle Energy, used to measure individual storms as well as entire tropical seasons.  The ACE is calculated by squaring the the estimated maximum sustained wind velocity of each cyclone with sustained winds over 35 knots (tropical storm strength) every six hours.  Those values are then added together over the life-cycle of the storm.  The ACE values for every year since 1851 has been calculated by Chris Landea at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.  A projected ACE of 155%-270% of the median is obviously indicative of a very active season.

One of the factors that has a big influence on how strong tropical systems that enter the Gulf of Mexico can get is the position and strength of the Gulf Loop Current.  This is the same current being discussed in relation to the oil volcano currently erupting off the Louisiana coast.  The good news for the potential future spread of oil away from the Gulf of Mexico is an eddy has broken off the Loop Current.  Oil within the eddy will more likely stay in the Gulf rather than be transported out of it, as Dr. Jeff Masters explains in this blog post.  The last Loop eddy that broke off is still in the western Gulf off the coast of Mexico, having traveled 3-5km per day since it broke off the main current back in July 2009.

Unfortunately, what’s good for limiting the spread of oil can be bad for tropical systems entering the Gulf.  The eddy maintains very warm sea temperatures to great depths, making high energy available to passing storm systems.  Hurricane Katrina is a perfect example of this.  She crossed the Florida peninsula on 26Aug2005 with 75mph sustained winds.  One day later, as she passed north of the western side of Cuba, she had strengthened to 115mph winds (a Category 3).  She stayed at that strength for another day while she passed over the northern edge of the Loop Current.  Then, she encountered a loop eddy.  Four hours later, her sustained winds jumped from 115mph to 144mph, becoming a Category 4 storm.  12 hours later, her winds were 161mph, becoming a Category 5 storm.  16 hours later, they had rocketed all the way up to 173mph.  In just over half a day, Hurricane Katrina went from a weak Category 3 storm to a Category 5 monster – mostly because she passed directly over the warmest core of the Loop Current eddy.  Thankfully for the residents of the Gulf Coast, that eddy was still in the middle of the Gulf.  If it had been closer to land, Katrina would have been even stronger at landfall.  In fact, Hurricane Rita passed over that same eddy later in 2005, rapidly strengthening just like Katrina did.   Rita’s path took her over even more water before landfall than did Katrina’s.  Rita still caused Houston to be partially evacuated and did plenty of damage after landfall.

So conditions are prime for another above-average hurricane season.  Individual storms will of course form where they will and little can be confidently said about their potential impacts on the Caribbean or Mexico or the U.S.   Potentially dangerous storms can quickly come together with all of the conditions that presently exist.  2010 could be another infamous season.

Cross-posted at SquareState.

News Roundup 6/4/09

Things that have caught my eye recently:

Rep. John Salazar (D-CO-03) has declined to support this year’s attempt to regulate hydraulic fracturing.  I know he’s feeling the pressure of the oil and gas industry.  My recommendation: do the right thing, Rep. Salazar.  Back the regulation, which isn’t onerous and will become overdue as corporations move forward with it.

Galveston’s recovery from Hurricane Ike last year continues, albeit slowly.  Much like other parts of the Gulf Coast that were ravaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, Galveston’s road to recovery will be long.  This raises an important question: as ocean temperatures continue to rise the remainder of this century, the incidence of intense hurricanes (> Category 3) is expected to rise.  Sea levels will continue to rise, putting additional areas at risk.  The combination of these two means that storm surges will be able to penetrate further inland.  As additional cities along the Gulf and East coast are hit, will we stop trying to rebuild or will we continue to sink billions of dollars into cities that will be under increasing threat from additional catastrophe?

Electric co-ops, which primarily serve rural areas, have committed their customers to spend millions of dollars to pay for coal plants, both new and expanded.  By doing so, there is a chance that they have increased the risk to future price hikes, especially as a carbon trading market matures and our energy policies direct attention to clean sources of energy.  Are the co-ops really acting in the best interests of their consumers, or the best interests of the diry coal industry?

Gov. Ritter signed legislation this week that will provide economic incentives for companies dealing with the pine-beetle epidemic, funds for mitigating wildfire danger and planning resources for local emergency responders.

Rep. Fred Upton and Rep. Todd Akin can spew plenty of b.s. talking points.  Neither are willing to deal with the climate and energy crises in an honest way.  The energy and climate legislation Congress is considering is far from hazardous waste.  Similarly, winter changing to spring is a far cry from the climate conditions that serious scientists are predicting.  Once again, changing such a ridiculous opinion will wait until it is too late and Missouri has to deal with climate refugees from the U.S. coast.

Gee, I Wonder Why Republicans Lost in 2008

It couldn’t be because of their lack of understanding of topics or lack of empathy for their constituents.  It couldn’t have been because of things like:

1. Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX), on the Obama administration’s efforts to regulate carbon dioxide:

Barton says the average healthy adult exhales between four-tenths of a ton and seven-tenths of a ton of CO2 a year.

“So if you put 20,000 marathoners into a confined area, you could consider that a single source of pollution, and you could regulate it,” Barton says. “The key would be whether the EPA said that 20,000 people running the same route was one source or not.”

One indication that the EPA likely would consider 20,000 runners a single source of pollution is that the agency is trying to regulate waste-water runoff and emissions of drilling rigs in oil fields by attempting to define entire areas as a single source of pollution, Barton says.

Yeah, I totally see how 20,000 runners are the same thing as 20,000 drilling rigs.  Rep. Barton’s analogy is ridiculous.  The rest of America (the sane part) knows the difference.

New Orleans – How Will Rebuilding Play Out?

Newsweek’s Fineman wrote about the need for Recovery money to be directed at places like New Orleans a couple of weeks ago.  It brought back to mind another National Geographic article about New Orleans.  It was in the August 2007 issue and detailed some updates since the landfall of Hurricane Katrina nearly two years prior.

On some level, I agree with Mr. Fineman.  New Orleans could be rebuilt.  It’s the how that I’m concerned with.  People have removed the ability of the Mississippi River to maintain the wetlands that in previous decades protected the city of New Orleans from the worst of storm surges.  Many square miles of wetland succumb to the waters of the Gulf every day, making the next storm to hit the area more of a danger than it otherwise would be.  The land under the city is sinking because it was drained.  Sea levels are rising because of our impact on the climate system.  Here is a decent map indicating what a 3-foot (1m) sea-level rise would do to the New Orleans area.  Keep in mind that the 2007 IPCC report considered a 1m sea-level rise by 2100 to be realistic under current emission rates.  More recent research has revealed that a 1m sea-level rise will likely occur much sooner than 2100 unless serious action is taken soon.  New Orleans has been threatened by tropical storms for a long time.  That threat is increasing.

Which should mean that efforts to protect the city’s infrastructure and citizens should also be increasing.  Unfortunately, as the National Geographic article detailed, that’s not happening.  The Army Corps of Engineers is rebuilding levees to their prior rating.  Those levees couldn’t protect the city from a strong Category 2 storm (at time of landfall) because of shoddy engineering an an unfortunate approach angle.  Things to consider include: the storm could have been stronger and the approach angle could have been more direct.  Rebuilding the cities’ defenses to prior criteria that failed therefore isn’t a good idea.

Therefore, if we’re to continue the rebuilding of city defenses and personal property, it makes sense to ensure higher standards are set.  The levees, gates and pumps should be built to withstand a much stronger hurricane.  Any complaints of cost need only look to the cost of rebuilding billions of dollars of private and public property throughout the city.  Houses need to be built several feet above the ground.  The Mississippi River needs to be less controlled.  The wetlands surrounding the city need to be encouraged to grow and not shrink.  All of these efforts need to arise from solid, scientific recommendations.  Further, they need to be put under strict oversight and accountability.  Otherwise, any and every effort currently being spent to rebuild the city will be wasted.

Another storm will impact the area.  A city that has lost 30% of its pre-Katrina population can ill-afford to lose even more due to negligence and a reluctance to improve on yesterday’s habits.

It’s Incredible To Have A New President

There are many reasons why I’m glad Barack Obama is President.  The first?  George W. Bush no longer is.  His “administrations’” purposeful actions to wreck everything they were responsible for will now be limited – slowly at first, but faster with time.  Prime among the policy issues President Obama is taking seriously: climate change.  President Obama also isn’t afraid to draw sharp and serious contrasts between himself and Bush.

Here is one of the whitehouse.gov’s additional issues:

President Obama will keep the broken promises made by President Bush to rebuild New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. He and Vice President Biden will take steps to ensure that the federal government will never again allow such catastrophic failures in emergency planning and response to occur.

Bush attempted, in the waning days of his presidency, to seucre his Katrina Legacy by saying he did everything he could to help the region and his “administration’s” response was swift and decisive.  That’s probably why citizens were left to fend for themselves for four days.  Since then, all Bush did was give no-bid contracts to the largest firms who already had a history of bungling reconstruction in Iraq.  Have you been to New Orleans or the remainder of the Gulf Coast since Sep 2005?  The area remains a disaster.  Many low-income areas still haven’t been cleaned up, let alone reconstructed.  And how many billions of taxpayer dollars did Bush release for that effort?  Those dollars went straight to executive compensation and shareholders, not the people who were actually affected by the storm.

Anyone who saw the response to Katrina, nearly 4 years after 11Sep2001, realized that Bush shouldn’t have been reelected because he had no interest in keeping America safe.  He refused to position supplies and emergency responders to an area that was accurately forecasted to be affected by Katrina days in advance.  That’s Bush’s Katrina Legacy.

As future disasters occur, as we all know they will, I have more confidence President Obama will respond appropriately to them than the did Bush the Squatter.  Will his responses be perfect?  No, of course not.  But if the reponse is bungled, I know Obama will hold those in charge responsible, something Bush never did.

The 21st Century has finally arrived for America.

Bush Appointed Judge Rejects Class-Action Katrina-Trailer Lawsuit

President Bush and his supporters have been busier the past nine months trying to establish the foundation of his “legacy” than running the government.  Not that they were doing a good job of running the government before – they’ve never done that.  But, “the legacy” has been at the forefront of their efforts for some time.  Well, news came out today that has more to do with his legacy than anything his supporters have come up with.  What legacy am I referring to?  How about the pro-corporatist judicial legacy Bush is leaving behind?  10, 20 and 30 years from now, judges Bush put on benches will still be ruling over cases.  When you look at the number of right-wing, Federalist Society-type judges Bush appointed, it becomes apparent that the rest of us will be forced to deal with his failed ideology long after he is gone.

The news today dealt with an attempt to put together a class-action lawsuit against trailer manufacturers post-Katrina.  Those trailers are alleged to have been of such poor quality that they actually posed health risks to their occupants.  Bush’s government issued those trailers and was responsible for ensuring they were of sufficient quality to house human beings safely.  U.S. District Judge Kurt Engelhardt ruled that the lawsuits could not be brought forward in a class-action due to the number of different manufacturers, and because each person’s claim is unique and must be examined individually.

In actuality, I wonder how much easier it is for corporations to swat away individual lawsuits.  Corporations have deeper pockets and more resources than individuals do.  Pooled resources by plaintiffs could be important in a case like this, especially considering the financial status of those forced into trailer housing following Hurricane Katrina.

Engelhardt was appointed to his current position by Bush back in 2001.  I’ve long known that Bush appointed a very narrow kind of person to benches at all levels.  Those judges had to be ideologically pure to Bush, Karl Rove and others.  The liklier the judges were to hold pro-corporate and anti-citizen positions, the liklier they were to be nominated to higher benches.  Engelhardt’s ruling is likely to be only the first in a long string of decisions surrounding Bush’s criminal response to a natural disaster.  This ruling isn’t friendly toward living, breathing American citizens.  Unfortunately, I expect similar decisions against them in the future.

Randomness 4/25/08

A report by the Genographic Project details how a natural, localized, long-term drought 70,000 years ago might have nearly wiped out our species. For the curious, global CO2 concentration levels jumped between 280 and 300ppm in these dry years. Today’s concentration: 380ppm and increasing. Long-term droughts of yesteryear that were localized could become global unless we stop forcing the climate system with our greenhouse gas emissions.

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John McCain showed what an imbecile and hypocrite he is yesterday with the following:

John McCain tured still hurricane-damaged areas of New Orleans and declared that if the disaster had happened on his watch, he would have immediately landed his plane at the nearest Air Force base.

He offered a pledge Thursday to New Orleans residents that their situation will not be forgotten and that such a botched disaster response will never happen again.

I’m not sure what having John McCain at a nearby Air Force base would have done for hurricane survivors. In any event, it doesn’t matter. Anybody that was actually paying attention the day Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast will remember that McCain and Bush were celebrating McCain’s birthday in Arizona. Neither Bush nor McCain cared one iota what misery Gulf Coast residents were going through. That’s because they’re elitist snobs. Bottom line: McCain is in no way fit to lead this nation to anything but more disaster.

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With oil flirting with $120 per barrel and gas threatening $4.00 per gallon, what kind of vehicles were sold last month? Smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles, that’s what. Truck and SUV sales suffered.

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Democrats are trying to tamp down public expectations for health care reform starting next year, even if they retake the White House this year. I have news for them: the health care crisis this country is facing is not going to go away. Too many people are being screwed by an immoral, profit-or-nothing system that only benefits executives. Too many people are not getting care. Senior Democrats are under the mistaken impression that they’re leading on this issue, when the reality couldn’t be more different. Senior Democrats love their cushy, guaranteed jobs (where they receive stellar health care paid for by taxpayers) first and foremost. What the people want gets considered well after their own petty wishes are granted. Exacerbating the problem is the perception that the Democratic nominees are guaranteeing major overhaul of the system. If that doesn’t occur quickly, I expect huge blowback. Something has got to give in this tug-of-war and I know the American people are tired of being shafted.

Katrina After-Effects: When Will It End?

From the AP:

Imagine that your home was reduced to mold-covered wood framing by Hurricane Katrina. Desperate for money to rebuild, you engage in a frustrating bureaucratic process, and after months of living in a government provided-trailer that gives off formaldehyde fumes you finally win a federal grant.

Then a collector announces that you have to pay back thousands of dollars.

Seriously?  It could be.  In the “rush” to delver aid to those left homeless by the devastating hurricane in 2005, a private contractor may have given out too much money.  Now, they want to hire another firm to try to collect the overpayments.  Between 1,000 and 5,000 cases could fall under collection efforts.  That means up to $175 million would have to be paid back.

In the grand scheme of things, I find this ridiculous as a taxpayer.  The same bungling of the Katrina relief funds has been evident in lost sums of money going to other private contractors operating in Iraq.  Those sums total in the tens of billions of dollars.  Though the entities are certainly separate, I want to hear about collection efforts being initiated against corporations that have knowingly stolen money from my government.  Make no mistake, this is the type of government Republicans love: billions in welfare for corporations & hunting down money mistakenly given to people who lost everything.  Democrats won back a number of seats at all levels in 2006 as a result.  2008 will be no different.