News Roundup 6/4/09

Things that have caught my eye recently:

Rep. John Salazar (D-CO-03) has declined to support this year’s attempt to regulate hydraulic fracturing.  I know he’s feeling the pressure of the oil and gas industry.  My recommendation: do the right thing, Rep. Salazar.  Back the regulation, which isn’t onerous and will become overdue as corporations move forward with it.

Galveston’s recovery from Hurricane Ike last year continues, albeit slowly.  Much like other parts of the Gulf Coast that were ravaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, Galveston’s road to recovery will be long.  This raises an important question: as ocean temperatures continue to rise the remainder of this century, the incidence of intense hurricanes (> Category 3) is expected to rise.  Sea levels will continue to rise, putting additional areas at risk.  The combination of these two means that storm surges will be able to penetrate further inland.  As additional cities along the Gulf and East coast are hit, will we stop trying to rebuild or will we continue to sink billions of dollars into cities that will be under increasing threat from additional catastrophe?

Electric co-ops, which primarily serve rural areas, have committed their customers to spend millions of dollars to pay for coal plants, both new and expanded.  By doing so, there is a chance that they have increased the risk to future price hikes, especially as a carbon trading market matures and our energy policies direct attention to clean sources of energy.  Are the co-ops really acting in the best interests of their consumers, or the best interests of the diry coal industry?

Gov. Ritter signed legislation this week that will provide economic incentives for companies dealing with the pine-beetle epidemic, funds for mitigating wildfire danger and planning resources for local emergency responders.

Rep. Fred Upton and Rep. Todd Akin can spew plenty of b.s. talking points.  Neither are willing to deal with the climate and energy crises in an honest way.  The energy and climate legislation Congress is considering is far from hazardous waste.  Similarly, winter changing to spring is a far cry from the climate conditions that serious scientists are predicting.  Once again, changing such a ridiculous opinion will wait until it is too late and Missouri has to deal with climate refugees from the U.S. coast.

2008 Temperatures, Atlantic Hurricane Season & More

I wanted to write a post about some datasets that encompass 2008 to put my recent discussions and future posts on climate in perspective.  First up, the World Meteorological Organization’s global temperature dataset.  In a preliminary report issued on 16 Dec, 2008′s global mean temperature was 14.3 °C, making it the 10th warmest year on record going back to 1850.  Despite a lingering La Nina, which is characterized by cooler than normal temperatures, 2008 was warmer than the 1990′s average temperature.  It was almost as warm as 1997, in the runup to the strongest El Nino on record.  It was only 0.2 °C cooler than the 1998 record temperature anomaly.  Those 10 warmest years on record?  All have occurred since 1997.

The La Nina that developed during 2007 and hung around through 2008 was easing back by the end of the year.  November was the 4th warmest all-time (land and ocean combined), as measured by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

• The November combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 55.2 degrees F (12.9 degrees C).

• Separately, the November 2008 global land surface temperature was fourth warmest on record and was 2.11 degrees F (1.17 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 42.6 degrees F (5.9 degrees C).

How much did the La Nina affect global temperatures?  According to NASA, the 2008 meteorological year (Dec 2007 – Nov 2008) was the coolest year since 2000, yet was still the 9th warmest on record (dating back to 1880).  So the coolest year since 2000 is a good thing, right?  Well, until the La Nina subsides.  2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007 were as anomalously warm as the record 1998 year, which had an extreme El Nino event.  How anomalously warm will the next El Nino year be?

More importantly, the trend in the Met Office/WMO and the NASA data continue to show a large and rapidly increasing warm anomaly.  Of particuar worry is the very large warm anomaly found over the Antarctic peninsula and eastern Russia.  The former has seen massive ice sheet calving episodes in recent years and increased ice flow toward the ocean from land as a result.  The latter has seen increasing emissions of methane as the permafrost thaws.  The former will lead to rising sea levels if trends don’t change.  The latter will release a greenhouse gas 20x as effective as CO2 is in energy absorption.  There is a lot of methane trapped in the permafrost.  Thawing the permafrost could initiate a positive feedback loop in which even more methane is released from the ground, which would warm the region and the globe even more.

The above temperature record also occurred in a period of low solar activity, which many climate change deniers claim is the most important factor driving our climate.  Most climatologists acknowledge the sun’s activity as being one input into our climate system, but also recognize that human forcing has likely become a more important climate driver.

NOAA’s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Report details some of the noteworthy accomplishments of the season:

• Bertha was a tropical cyclone for 17 days (July 3-20), making it the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic Basin.
• Fay is the only storm on record to make landfall four times in the state of Florida, and to prompt tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the state’s entire coastline (at various times during its August lifespan).
• Paloma, reaching Category 4 status with top winds of 145 mph, is the second strongest November hurricane on record behind Lenny in 1999 with top winds of 155 mph).

More items of interest:

Overall, the season is tied as the fourth most active in terms of named storms (16) and major hurricanes (five), and is tied as the fifth most active in terms of hurricanes (eight) since 1944, which was the first year aircraft missions flew into tropical storms and hurricanes.

For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).

Green Prisons & FEMA Under Bush

A prison in Washington state has developed a program to help reduce its operating costs.  In an effort to reduce waste and conserve energy and water, the Cedar Creek Corrections Center started a compost and organic farm program.  In Indiana, a wind turbine generates 10kW/hr, saving them $2,280 per year.  A prison in California installed 6,200 solar panels, generating enough energy to send some back to the grid.  As for operating costs, states alone spent $49 billion on 2.3 million prisoners last year.  This country needs prison reform.

I remember listening to the Bush administration’s empty platitudes after their bungled response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.  Never again would they be caught unprepared, they told us.  If another hurricane hit the U.S., the federal response would be much better, nearly flawless, they breathlessly bragged.  Why then am I not surprised to read that the only lesson Bush’s failed government learned was how to keep reports of their indifference out of the news?  Why did it take nearly two months for FEMA’s deputy administrator to admit his agency’s slow response to a disaster … again?  Why were families denied temporary housing … again?  Why were resources not in the region after the disaster … again.  This despite the corporate media’s dutifull parroting that plenty of resources were available prior to Hurricane Ike’s landfall.  As with every other issue, the cons’ message is: “You’re on your own”.  Tuesday can’t come soon enough.

Bush Deregulates Industries, Economic Downturn Worsens & more

Bush pushes new deregulation rules, or as I talk about at SquareState, Bush Launches Last Attacks on Americans.

The economic downturn speeds up. Among the new problems, consumer spending is down by the largest amount in four years.  Consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. economic activity.  I expect that number to continue to decrease.  After all, home equity is tapped, credit cards are tapped, wages remain stagnant, workers are being laid off, and the Bush administration bails out industries.  Where are consumers supposed to get the money to buy their crap?

Another story has received almost no attention in the glare of the 2008 election: refugees from Ike.
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season caused a lot of damage and death this year.  Do we have disaster fatigue?  If so, it doesn’t bode well for the future.  Extreme weather events are likely to become more common.

Early voting numbers look strong.

News Pieces 9/27/08

In a move toward improving the transparency of bills in Congress, PublicMarkup.org has put the original Bush Bailout plan and Senator Chris Dodd’s plan dealing with the same issue up for public view.  The public can also comment on the legislation.

Oh, in case you’re wondering – despite having billions of dollars worth of bad assets and paying executives millions of dollars every year, the financial institutions looking for a $700 billion handout is still paying for lobbyists.  In the millions this year alone.  While families are losing their houses.  That’s immoral.

The Republican County Clerk in El Paso is illegally trying to prevent students at Colorado College from voting this November.  Why would that be?  Could it be that young voters are breaking 65-32 for Obama over McCain?  Every vote Bob Balink prevents for Obama and other Democrats is one step closer toward his party’s success.  There are 10 days left to register to vote for this year’s election.  How many voters will be unable to vote because of this Republican’s immoral efforts?

While the summer season has drawn to a close for the Arctic, thankfully ending the horrible rate of melt this year, the Antarctic’s winter is also ending.  This winter wasn’t as good to the sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere as last winter was.  The maximum extent was 15 million sq. km, over 1 million sq. km. less than the area last year.  It appears Aug. 2008 wasn’t a good year for ice worldwide as the Southern Hemisphere actually lost over 500,000 sq. km. of ice in a two-week time period.  August also saw the fastest rate of melt of ice in the Northern Hemisphere.  After attaining a +2 million sq. km. anomaly last year, the Southern Hemisphere is lucky to be right at the 1970-2000 mean, and appears to be heading negative as the melt accelerates.

The shuttle mission to Hubble has been delayed by 4 days, from Oct. 10th to the 14th.  Most of the delay was caused by Hurricane Ike’s landfall and damage to the Houston, TX area.  Atlantis is scheduled to make the trip to Hubble.  Endeavour is waiting on a nearby launch pad in the event that Atlantis experiences damage significant enough to prevent a return to Earth.  Endeavour is scheduled to make another construction flight to the International Space Station later this year if the rescue mission is unneeded.

A potential lunar colony site has been mapped in 3-D using camera data that wasn’t meant for 3-D.  I think Mars exploration and colonies should come first, but recognize the long-term importance of the Moon as well.

Gas shortages are occurring across the southern U.S. A couple of factors are causing this situation.  Hurricanes Gustav and Ike shut down drilling and refining infrastructure as well as power delivery systems across the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana and Texas.  More disturbing is the following:

In its most recent Weekly Oil Data Review, Barclays Capital pointed out that the U.S. gasoline inventory has reached its lowest level since August 1967, when demand was a little more than half its current level of 9.3 million barrels a day. At 178.7 million barrels, inventories are 21.6 million barrels below their five-year average.

Replacing those inventories isn’t easy either.  “Once the refineries get back up and running, they’ll drain the already low crude oil inventories.”  Not discussed in the article is the impact of fuel corporations sitting on millions of acres of leased land without drilling.  Not discussed in the article is the impact of not building additional refining capacity in the last 30 years, making the drilling issue completely irrelevant.  It’s that lack of refining capacity (which are only operating at 67% of capacity right now) that has put a large region of the country in danger of running out of gasoline.  If that situation gets worse, food won’t be able to be supplied.  Then the anger over Bush’s Wall St. Bailout will seem minor in comparison.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/15/08

All the major storms in the Atlantic basin have dissipated.  August and September have been very busy and the news has been terrible as far as hurricane-related news goes.  Louisiana is still cleaning up from Hurricane Gustav, which wasn’t as bad as it could have been.  Texas and Louisiana are beginning the cleanup from Hurricane Ike, which also wasn’t as bad as it could have been.  Islands in the Atlantic are cleaning up from all of the above and more.  Cuba, the Bahamas, and Haiti are only a few of the major areas affected by the storms in the Atlantic so far this season.  That’s part of the story: the season is a long way from being over.  September 10th is the climatological average date of the peak of the season.  We might have passed by the hump, but the western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico still have waters warm enough to support tropical storm development.  But for now, things are quiet.

The 4th largest city in America, Houston TX, should remain partially evacuated, according to Texas’ Governor Perry.  Galveston’s city officials are telling the 20,000 residents who “braved” the storm to leave the city because Galveston is unsafe and unhealthy.  Those that evacuated will not be let back in for the forseeable future.  At this point, let me repeat what I wrote above: Hurricane Ike could have been worse.  A lot worse.  It was a borderline Category 2/3 storm at landfall (I think it was a 3; there were political considerations involved in classifying it as a 2).  If Ike hadn’t had to battle the shear that it did, or if the Gulf Loop Current had a larger eddy in the northwest Gulf, Ike would have been a more potent storm.  Ike could have made landfall 40 miles further southwest.  That would have brought the worst of the storm surge ashore at Galveston and dealt Houston a stronger blow with his winds.  But Texas and Louisiana didn’t get all of Ike.  Flooding across the nation, including Chicago, IL, was reported.  Early estimates of storm damage are in the $10 billion range.

As bad as things are right now and while there’s no doubt there is much work to be done in the short-term, the larger issues of global warming and hurricane frequency and intensity need to remain in the public’s attention.  Similarly, the excessive development of our cities and communities along the coast cannot fade into the background of our national discourse.  Hurricane Ike will not be the last hurricane to hit the Gulf coast region.  How many times do major cities have to be evacuated and rebuilt after hurricanes wreck them?  How intelligent is it to continue to base our fuel infrastructure in a region prone to destructive weather events?  Why should we continue to disrupt major sectors of our economy due to our choice to develop along coastlines?

And take note: the east coast has remained out of the paths of hurricanes recently.  There is just as much development, if not more, along the east coast.  At one point, Ike looked as though he would move up the east coast in a similar path that Hanna did, except as a stronger system.  What happens when a Category 2 storm hits northern Virginia or New York City or Boston?  Where are those millions of people going to evacuate to?  How long would recovery efforts take in a wide, densely populated region take?  There are many issues that connect to and interact with this subject.  I’ll discuss those in the days ahead in posts that take on a more political bent.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/12/08

[Update 12:00A MDT]:

Hurricane Ike is making landfall at Galveston.  The seawall there is expected to have been topped and the city flooded.  Hurricane Ike’s second spiral band is now passing through Houston, 50 miles to Galveston’s northwest.  A heavy burst of convection has recently generated to the north of Ike’s center as his bands begin to rapidly spiral toward the surface low.  Ike’s eye was measured at one point to be an astounding 49 miles across.  Beyond being numerically impressive, an eye that size presents a real hazard to Gulf coast residents.  After the leading edge passes over one point, it could be one to three hours before the other side passes over the same point with hurricane force winds.

***

[Update 9:45P MDT]:

We’re down to the final few hours prior to Hurricane Ike’s landfall. There have been some important, last-hour changes to Ike that I’ll discuss below. Let’s start with his vitals tonight:

Center located at 28.6N, 94.4W; maximum sustained surface winds of 110mph (1mph less than Category 3 strength); moving NW @ 12mph; minimum surface pressure of 952mb (still very low for a Category 2 storm).

The center of Hurricane Ike is about 50 miles from shore at this time. As he has approached the coast, radar imagery has helped show that Ike’s eye is finally becoming more pronounced. Recent radar loops have shown small, mesoscale vortices traveling around the interior of Ike’s eye-wall. Seeing them on satellite is one thing; seeing them on radar is pretty impressive.

The NHC is also pointing out that winds above the surface are reaching Category 4 strength: at levels a few hundred feet above the surface, winds are screaming at 130mph. A few things should be noted here: Ike’s official category is based off surface wind speeds, surface winds are very typically slower than those found just a short distance further up due to friction, and those higher wind speeds aloft will cause a lot of damage to high-rises in the Houston area, which is already in the hurricane force wind region.

At this point, it looks like Ike’s center will pass directly over Galveston and just to the east of Houston proper. Ike’s wind field remains very, very impressive in scope. Most of Louisiana and a good portion of southeastern Texas is within Ike’s tropical storm force wind field. Areas between Freeport, TX and Lake Charles, LA are in the hurricane force wind field. A huge region to the center’s east and south are still experiencing hurricane and tropical storm force winds.

That wind field has already caused a 10 foot rise in water along the Gulf coast. One thing working against Galveston and Houston is high tide, which will occur at about 1A CDT, just as Ike is coming ashore. The total storm surge numbers will be impressive to note post-event.

One silver lining to this storm is the current relative lack of convection to the north of Ike’s center. A large convective band is located to the center’s south, but a distinct break between bands can be seen just north of the center. Whether that feature remains in place as Ike makes landfall will be seen. [Update 10:15P]: As I’ve updated this post, the lack of convection north of Ike’s center has slowly gone away as his eye continues to organize. The convective band forming where there was very little just an hour ago isn’t very intense yet, but it looks much more like a textbook hurricane eye-wall.

Ike should continue along his current trajectory until the center is located to Houston’s north, at which time he should begin curving around the strong ridge sitting over the eastern U.S. The upper-level trough that is currently moving across the central U.S. will weaken the ridge in the area of Ike’s path, which will help steer him in a more northerly direction. By the time Ike’s center passes east of Dallas, TX, he should begin moving northeasterly. By Sunday night, Ike should be located over Indiana, on his way to being absorbed and caught up in the westerlies.

Over 1 million people evacuated ahead of Ike’s landfall. Some few hundred thousand refused evacuation orders in the face of the NWS’s warning that they could face imminent death. Sen. Cornyn (R-TX) identified Hurricane Gustav’s relatively weak effects and storm complacency. I’ve got a different opinion: Republicans have spent years convincing Americans that government can’t work. Hurricane Katrina provided stark imagery of how dangerous it is when government doesn’t work. Now Sen. Cornyn expects Texans to acknowledge government authority and advice when the cities of his state face catastrophe? It’s Hurricane Gustav’s fault? How petty and immoral of you, Senator.

***

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/11/08

[Update 10P MDT]:

No major changes to Hurricane Ike throughout the day. His pressure remains very low for a Category 2 storm. Concentric wind maxima continue to battle for dominance within the storm, but the inner wall is starting to erode. Ike continues to close in on the Galveston area, with landfall likely to occur in just over 24 hours. Ike’s vitals:

Center located at 26.3N, 90.4W; maximum sustained winds of 100mph; moving WNW @ 12mph; minimum pressure of 950mb.

Hurricane Ike’s official path has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous track. This brings Ike a little closer to the Galveston Bay area Friday night and Saturday morning, but keeps him just to the south of Galveston as he comes roaring ashore. For the first time, Hurricane Ike’s intensity forecast keeps him as a strong Category 2 until landfall. This may not be a blessing for Texas residents as one of the reasons for his lack of intensification is the very wide wind field of hurricane force winds and the even wider field of tropical storm force winds. For instance, Houma, Louisiana is within an envelope experiencing tropical storm force winds and it is over 200 miles to the north of Ike’s center.

Thousands of residents have been evacuated from Galveston, TX and low-lying areas in and around Houston, TX. Refining facilities have been temporarily shut down and will likely remain so for about four days. At this point in time, Hurricane Ike’s cloud shield covers nearly all of the Gulf of Mexico, no small feat. If his center were further west, the shield would easily extend from Texas to Florida. And he’s only a Category 2 storm.

Elsewhere in the recently quiet Atlantic, there is an area 350 miles east of the southern Bahama Islands that the NHC is monitoring for development. This area includes a portion of the remnants of Tropical Storm Josephine, which was sheared apart in the eastern Atlantic. This disturbance has been identified as Invest-91.

I’ve seen two model runs that take the disturbance through the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida in a few days time. They also show the disturbance continuing to develop, but are unclear whether it would be organized enough to become a Tropical Depression. Model ensembles indicate the the disturbance is likely to move over Cuba within the next four days or so. At this time, convection is confined and there isn’t any indication of circulation around a central low. The disturbance is moving over waters that Hanna and Ike moved over in the past one to two weeks. As such, conditions aren’t very amenable right now for development.

***

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/10/08

[Update 5:30P MDT]:

There is an interesting change to Hurricane Ike’s intensity forecast.  As of this early evening’s information, Ike could intensify through the afternoon on Friday (2 days away), up to a Category 4 storm.  Now, that could mean the models are forecasting maximum sustained winds just over the Cat3/Cat4 threshold.  Looking at the text guidance from the NHC, this looks to be the case.  Whether Ike can attain that strength or how long it can be maintained if he does reach it is something that remains to be seen.  Hurricane Ike should reach major hurricane status, Category 3, tomorrow afternoon.

The NHC has been writing about the extent of hurricane force and tropical storm force winds from the center.  That extent is pretty large for a storm, so it won’t matter too much where Ike makes landfall.  Of more importance is the wide area around that location that will feel the effects of a major hurricane.

***

[Update 12:15P MDT]:

Ike’s reintensification to a Category 2 storm occurred in less than 8 hours.  Since this morning, his sustained winds have increased by 15mph.  Further intensification is expected, though it could be non-continuous as eye-wall replacements continue.  Here are Ike’s vitals as of this afternoon:

Center located at 24.2N, 85.8W; maximum sustained winds of 100mph; moving NW @ 8mph; minimum pressure of 958mb.  Ike looks pretty good on satellite imagery.  There is some dry air to his west that he is ingesting, and that could have some small affect on his potential intensification over the next couple of days.  This afternoon’s official forecast calls for a Category 3 landing Saturday morning on the Texas coast.

***

There hasn’t been much of a change to Hurricane Ike or his future overnight. Some numbers to update:

Center located at 23.9N, 85.3W; maximum sustained winds of 85mph (slightly stronger than last night); moving NW @ 8mph; minimum pressure of 959mb (lower than last night and still pretty low for a Category 1 storm). Given the decrease in pressure and the increase in wind speed that has already occurred, Ike should be a Category 2 storm (minimum wind speed 96mph) within the next 12-24 hours.

Ike should continue his path toward the northwest through the next three days, intensifying during the same period. Ike has a good chance of reintensifying to a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3 storm in the Gulf of Mexico. This morning’s official track forecast calls for a landfall near Corpus Christi, TX on Saturday morning. The model track envelope is narrowing down as we get closer to the event. After that, of course, there is a wide spread in how the models handle Ike over the U.S.

News Items 9/10/08: Large Hadron Collider; U.S. Evacuations

The Large Hadron Collider – a $9 billion particle accelerator designed to simulate conditions of the Big Bang that created the Universe – was successfully switched on early this morning. A beam of protons was sent in one direction, then the other.  The next test will be to generate two beams, probably of low power, toward each other.  As activities ramp up, the LHC is scheduled to collide streams of protons at each other at speeds approaching the speed of light in attempts to create exotic particles, some of which remain only theoretical. It also represents another instance in which Europe is slowly passing up the U.S. in engineering and scientific prowess.

Officials in Texas have wisely warned residents all along the coast to be prepared to evacuate as Hurricane Ike threatens later this week. I bring this up here because residents in Louisiana and Mississippi evacuated in advance of Hurricane Gustav’s landfall earlier this hurricane season. Something like 1-2 million people ended up evacuating. If anything close to 1 million people evacuate prior to Ike’s landfall, the costs will really mount this season. Commodity shortages will have occurred and even National Guard troops will have remained on active duty for a number of weeks. 3 million people not working for one week or another (some longer in Louisiana as they clean up) also affects the economy. Global warming will increase the frequency of landfalling hurricanes and their intensity as they do so. Which means global warming will negatively impact the U.S. economy, more so than changing our energy policy.