Weatherdem's Weblog

Bridging climate science, citizens, and policy


Leave a comment

Economists Totally Blow Predictions

How well is Bush’s economy doing? It couldn’t be better! As long as you’re incredibly wealthy. For the rest of us, things aren’t going so well. A large dose of bad economic news came out within the past day. Oh, and surprise, surprise: economists’ predictions were way off once again.

From the AP: “Consumer confidence plunged, the wholesale inflation rate soared, the number of homes being foreclosed jumped, home prices fell sharply and a report predicts big increases in health care costs.”

The details on each:

The Consumer Confidence Index plunged in February to 75.0 from a revised 87.3 in January. Economists were predicting a decrease to 83.0 . Oops.

The Labor Department said Tuesday that wholesale prices rose 1 percent last month, more than double the 0.4 percent increase that economists had been expecting. Oops. Imagine if your local weatherman missed the forecasted precipitation by half. Your neighbors would be calling for their head on a platter. Not so with economists.

What did that increase in monthly wholesale prices do to inflation? “The January surge left wholesale prices rising by 7.5 percent over the past 12 months, the fastest pace in more than 26 years, since prices had risen at a 7.5 percent pace in the 12 months ending in October 1981.”  That’s 7.5% inflation. Did your salary increase by 7.5% last year? Mine sure didn’t.

Continue Reading →

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 164 other followers