September 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentration: 388.95ppm

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography measured an average of 388.95ppm CO2 concentration at their Mauna Loa, Hawai’i’s Observatory during September 2011.  This reading is from the Scripps’ dataset, not NOAA’s, from which I previously wrote.

That value is the highest value for September in recorded history. Last year’s 386.83 was the previous highest September value ever recorded.  This year’s September reading is 2.12ppm higher than last September’s, which is a significant difference.

The yearly maximum monthly value normally occurs during May. This year was no different: the 394.16 concentration is the highest value reported both this year and all time.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month. This is the first month during this calendar year which recorded a concentration below 390ppm.  In my last few posts on this topic, I wrote, “Based on the trend from May to September in years past, I expect 2011′s minimum to be ~388ppm.”  We’ll see in early November what October’s average concentration was and how far off my projection was.  I don’t think it will be off by that much.

August 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentration: 390.19ppm

Scripps’ measured an average of 390.19ppm CO2 concentration at their Mauna Loa, Hawai’i’s Observatory during August 2011.  This reading is from the Scripps’ dataset, not NOAA’s, from which I previously wrote.

That value is the highest value for August in recorded history. Last year’s 388.54 was the previous highest August value ever recorded.  This year’s August reading is 1.65ppm higher than last August’s, which is a significant difference.

The yearly maximum monthly value normally occurs during May. This year was no different: the 394.16 concentration is the highest value reported both this year and all time.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month. Although it hasn’t happened yet (every month in 2011 has recorded at least 390ppm), the yearly minimum that normally occurs in September is upcoming.  Based on the trend from May to September in years past, I expect 2011′s minimum to be ~388ppm.

July 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentration: 392.39ppm

An average of 392.39ppm CO2 concentration was measured at Scripps’ Mauna Loa, Hawai’i’s Observatory during July 2011.  This reading is from the Scripps’ dataset, not NOAA’s, from which I previously wrote.

That value is the highest value for July in recorded history. Last year’s 390.11 was the previous highest July value ever recorded.  This year’s July reading is 2.28ppm higher than last July’s, which is a significant difference.

The yearly maximum monthly value normally occurs during May. This year was no different: the 394.16 concentration is the highest value reported both this year and all time.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month. Although it hasn’t happened yet (every month in 2011 has recorded at least 390ppm), the yearly minimum that normally occurs in September is upcoming.  Given the trend from May to September in years past, 2011′s minimum should be ~388ppm.

Our species’ aggressive march toward 400ppm and beyond continues. Keep in mind that scientists have recommended that 350ppm should be the target for which humanity should aim in order to keep climate extremes from overwhelming our civilization and the globe’s ecosystems.  One might think that recent weather extremes should be drawing much needed public attention to the climate crisis that is unfolding.  One would be wrong, unfortunately.  It seems that only extremely large, catastrophic events will be enough to grab the American public’s attention.  By then, it will be too late to make a difference.

June 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentration: 393.69ppm

An average of 393.69ppm CO2 concentration was measured at Scripps’ Mauna Loa, Hawai’i’s Observatory during June 2011.  In the past, I reported on the NOAA observation, but it either hasn’t been updated recently or separate measurements have been combined somehow.   This post, like last month’s, will compare Scripps data against Scripps data – not Scripps versus NOAA.

That value is the highest value for June in recorded history. Last year’s 392.03 was the previous highest June value ever recorded, which mean that this June’s value 1.63ppm higher than June 2010.

The yearly maximum monthly value normally occurs during May. This year was no different: the 394.16 concentration is the highest value reported both this year and all time.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month. Although it hasn’t happened yet (every month in 2011 has recorded at least 390ppm), the yearly minimum that normally occurs in September is upcoming.  Given the trend from May to September in years past, 2011′s minimum should be ~388ppm.

Our species’ aggressive march toward 400ppm and beyond continues. Keep in mind that scientists have recommended that 350ppm should be the target for which humanity should aim in order to keep climate extremes from overwhelming our civilization and the globe’s ecosystems.

May 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentration: 394.16ppm

Oops, it turns out I never published this post back in early June when I wrote it.  I’m going to publish June’s data later today.

An average of 394.16ppm CO2 concentration was measured at Scripps’ Mauna Loa, Hawai’i’s  Observatory during May 2011.  Normally, I report on the NOAA observation, but it hasn’t been updated yet this month.  When they do, I’ll update this post.  The rest of this post will compare Scripps data against Scripps data – not Scripps versus NOAA.

That value is the highest in recorded history.  Last year’s 393.22 was the previous highest May value ever recorded.  This year’s value is 1.13ppm higher than May 2010.

The yearly maximum monthly value normally occurs during May.  The 394.16 concentration is therefore likely to be the highest value reported this year.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month.  The aggressive march toward 400ppm continues.  Keep in mind that scientists have recommended that 350ppm should be the target for which humanity should aim in order to keep climate extremes from overwhelming our civilization.

Climate Change Basics – Gases, Forcing & Surface Temperature

After running across some resources again recently, I thought it would be a good idea to put some posts together that showed the background of many of the common facts I discuss.  In this first post, I wanted to show the relationship between greenhouse gases, radiative forcing and temperatures.  In doing, I will use graphics from the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report Technical Summary.

First, here is a graphic of changes in greenhouse gases from ice core and modern observational data, spanning the time period of 20,000 years ago through current:

The portion of this graph I’d like to focus on is the upper left quadrant displaying the time series of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.  First, note is the transition from ~180ppm 20,000 years ago to between 260 and 280ppm.  This transition helped bring the last interglacial period to an end.  Of greater import is the more recent transition from 280ppm to 380ppm (as of ~2005; current concentrations are ~390ppm).

April 2011 CO2 Concentration: 393.18ppm

An average of 393.18ppm CO2 concentration was measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa, Hawai’i’s  Observatory during April 2011.

That value is the highest in recorded history.  Last year’s 392.49 was the previous highest April value ever recorded.  This year’s value is 0.69ppm higher than April 2010.  It is 0.76ppm higher than March 2011.

A rough extrapolation of the last few months’ concentrations projects out to 394-395ppm in May, the month during which the yearly maximum concentration is typically recorded.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month.  The aggressive march toward 400ppm continues.  Keep in mind that scientists have recommended that 350ppm is the current target for which humanity should aim in order to keep climate extremes from overwhelming our civilization.

March 2011 CO2 Concentration: 392.40ppm

An average of 392.40ppm CO2 concentration was measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa, Hawai’i's  Observatory during March 2011.

That value is the 3rd highest in recorded history, behind April and May 2010.  392.40 is the highest March value ever recorded. It is 1.39ppm higher than March 2010.  It is 0.63ppm higher than February 2011.

A rough extrapolation of last month’s concentration projects out to 394-395ppm in May, the month during which the yearly maximum concentration is recorded.

This will likely be the last year that CO2 concentrations will fall below 390ppm during any calendar month.  The aggressive march toward 400ppm continues.  Keep in mind that scientists have recommended that 350ppm is the current target for which humanity should aim in order to keep climate extremes from overwhelming our civilization.

February 2011 CO2 Concentration: 391.76ppm

February 2011′s CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawai’i was 391.76ppm.

That value is 1.92ppm higher than February 2010.  It is 0.57ppm higher than January 2011.

A rough extrapolation of February CO2 concentration values to May values, when the yearly maximum occurs, projects to ~395ppm.

Remember, we should be targeting 350ppm to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 2C above pre-industrial values.

January 2011 CO2 Concentration: 391.19ppm

January 2011′s CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawai’i was 391.19ppm.

That value is 2.74ppm higher than January 2010.  It is 1.5ppm higher than December 2010.

2011 will be the first year that global CO2 concentrations will be higher than 390ppm for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years.  And concentrations aren’t going down any time soon either.  Despite the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression, global emissions in 2010 didn’t increase, but were “merely” flat.  Until global emissions decrease by significant amounts year after year after year, concentrations will continue to rise to dangerous levels, precipitating changes in the globe’s climate system that will be irreversible for tens of thousands of years, at best.

How close are we to “dangerous levels”?  The last collapse of the Greenland ice-sheet was found to occur between 400 and 560ppm.  We’re only 10ppm away from the minimum of that range.  We’ll blow past 400ppm within 5 years, which means dangers are just around the corner.  As we’ve discovered in the past 10 years, global warming effects are not well predicted.  Those effects have been larger, more complex and occurred sooner than anybody thought possible.  There is no reason to assume situations will be different moving forward.