Betsy Markey Continues to Lead Marilyn Musgrave in Polls (Oct 2008)

Marilyn Musgrave’s attempts to change her stripes the past two years doesn’t seem to be working out well.  Thankfully, the good folks in CO-04 have a good choice this year in Betsy Markey.  Markey has run a good campaign, keeping the heat on Marilyn from the beginning.  I wrote a post back in May about the first poll that Markey’s campaign made public.  That poll showed Markey leading Musgrave 43-36.  At the time, I acknowledged that November was a long ways off and things could change.  Things haven’t gotten better for Musgrave, which is her own doing, really.

A couple of polls since then have come out – one in August and one in September.  It is worth noting that the September poll was done prior to the economic meltdown we’re still experiencing.  But let me start with the August poll.  Conducted by SurveyUSA (a very reputable firm), it showed Markey beating Musgrave 50-43 with 7% undecided.  The poll had a =/-4% MoE.  There are a couple of details in the poll I want to bring up here.  Men were evenly split, while women preferred Markey 53-38%.  Markey did better in every age group except 65+.  That’s all fine and good.  It’s the racial breakdown that confuses me.  “Whites” made up 100% of the respondents.  I know that CO-04 has a substantial Hispanic population.  It makes no sense why they weren’t included.  How hard did SUSA work to include Hispanics?  My thinking is the results would have looked even better for Markey had Hispanics been included.  Top issues identified in this poll were Iraq, Health Care, the Economy and Education.

The September poll was conducted by Grove Insight for EMILY’s List.  It showed Markey beating Musgrave by a 47-38 margin.  I couldn’t find poll internals, unfortunately.  Regardless, that’s three polls across a number of months that have showed a dintinct Markey lead.  It is bad news indeed for Marilyn Musgrave to poll no better than 43% by an independent polling firm, and generally around 40%.  Meanwhile, Betsy Markey’s numbers look to be in the high 40s.

Here is pollster’s tracking for CO-04.

Marilyn Musgrave has responded in the past month by trying to drag Betsy Markey into the mud.  Her ads have been filled with lies and attacks.  This from the same candidate who tried very hard for two years to convince voters she was as sweet as sugar and shared their values.  I don’t think Musgrave’s negativity is going to work in an election year in which the economy has tanked and she hasn’t produced any solutions.  Betsy Markey needs to stay positive and keep her grassroots active.  I would love to wake up on Nov. 5th knowing Colorado was going to send 5 Democrats to the House that were able and willing to work for Coloradans.  The time of socially divisive legislation is over.

[Update 11/2/08]: For those looking for additional polling on this race, there hasn’t been a poll publicly released since the September one showing Betsy Markey leading by 9.  I know both campaigns have conducted their own polling since then, but they haven’t released those numbers.  I think that means the numbers haven’t changed.  If Musgrave were ahead, she would talk about nothing else.  Instead, she’s unleashed a number of negative ads.  By the same token, Markey hasn’t released any additional information and has responded to Musgrave’s rumor-based ads.  I expect Betsy Markey to win this race.

In The News 10/15/08

The last Presidential debate of the 2008 cycle is tonight.  I expect John McCain to come out aggressively – he’s losing the race quite handily right now and so has nothing to lose.  Opponents are dangerous when they have nothing to lose.  Barack Obama will do fine in the debate as long as he continues to project his presidential demeanor to America.  That’s a big reason he won the first two.  I don’t think he’ll get run off of his successful approach.  Folks who are looking for excitement or passion will likely be disappointed tonight.  One thing I’m looking for is how this debate is moderated.  Will Obama and McCain be allowed to engage each other to any degree?

John McCain is up to 133 lies.  Heroes don’t lie.

Want a decent return on your investments?  Elect Democrats.  Seriously.  If you had invested $10,000 under Democratic presidents only since 1929 (Ds & Rs have held the post for 40 years each since 1929), your investment would have grown to $300,671.  If you had invested $10,000 under Republican presidents only since 1929, your investment would have grown to only $11,733.  That’s pretty sad.  Okay, so Herbert Hoover was included in the Republicans and he screwed up the economy almost as bad as George Bush has.  So if Hoover is thrown out, your $10,000 investment would have grown to … $51,211.  That’s a crappy return for 36 years’ investment.  The average annualized return under Republican presidencies: 0.4% including Hoover, 4.7% not including Hoover.  The average annualized return under Democratic presidencies: 8.9%.  Don’t ever let a Republican get away with saying they’re better for capitalism.  It just isn’t true.

A new solar research facility will open in Aurora, Colorado.  SolarTAC, or Solar Technology Acceleration Center, is the second facility created by the Colorado Renewable Energy Collaboratory.  The Colorado Center for Biorefining and Biofuels opened July 1.  The U.S. needs to end its use of fossil fuels in the near term.  R&D is important – getting technologies into the market is just as important.

CO-04 Democratic candidate Betsy Markey was profiled by Council for a Livable World.

The economic downturn took drilling away as a CONservative weapon in this year’s election.  Just remember: they won’t let up next year.

Mark Udall issued a warning to the Bush administration over oil shale drilling.  Due to the incredible resources such drilling require, it’s obviously not viable in the short-term.  With a global recession and damped demand for fossil fuels, it’s not viable any time soon.

Retail sales plunged to the lowest level in three years as consumers cut way back in September.  The Federal Reserve noted that economic activity was depressed across the country.  The markets responded by shedding over 700 points again.  The thing to glean from all of this is the system has to work out the kinks.  Credit availability has been yanked.  Consumers have been forced to spend less because their incomes haven’t risen in real terms in decades.  They’re up to their eyeballs in credit card debt and their home equity has been tapped.  The solution to this crisis is rooted in making new jobs available to Americans and paying them better to do what they’re already doing.  Invest in the people and their infrastructure and the economy will be righted quite nicely.  It took a lot to get into this mess.  It’s going to take a lot to really get out of it.

What’s In The News 9/6/08: Palin Is Scared, Permafrost, Musgrave and more

John McCain went with a totally “mavericky” choice for VP, right? So is there anything Sarah Palin isn’t ready for? Actually, yes: the media. Is John McCain serious? Palin is supposed to be ready for Putin’s Russia, Iran’s Ahmadinejad and Al Qaeda in every cave on Earth, but the Governor of Alaska will be unavailable for a formal interview with the media until … well, who knows. The McCain campaign won’t say when she’ll be available. Folks, if Palin can’t answer some media questions, how ready is she to deal with leaders that will play hardball? Joe Biden has already had formal interviews with the media. So has Barack Obama. Interesting.

The permafrost in arctic regions is thawing. In the process, the amount of carbon dioxide that could be released into the atmosphere is double previous estimates. The new amount is equal to twice the current atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Marilyn Musgrave’s campaign is whining about an ad paid for by a veteran’s group.

The ad shows a number of Colorado veterans who talk about their struggles with high food and gas prices. The veterans say the Fort Morgan Republican voted against a $1,500 combat bonus for service-members but accepted $14,000 in pay raises for herself.

I’m not sure how it’s a smear tactic, as Musgrave is claiming. If she didn’t vote against the combat bonus for the heroes Republicans like to use as props, that should be easy to demonstrate. If she didn’t accept the pay raises, that should also be easy to demonstrate. If she did these things however, then VoteVets is merely informing her constituents what she’s doing in Washington. If Musgrave doesn’t like the truth, she has only herself to blame.

James Hansen was correct 27 years ago: warming can raise sea levels. Denyer talking points include 1970′s forecasts of ‘global cooling’, which never happened. Hansen’s paper demonstrates that just the opposite was occurring.

T. Boone Pickens’ political donations. Is T. Boone non-partisan? Hardly. He has never donated to a Democrat. Not once. His b.s. plan is all about making money, which would be fine if he would stop lying to the public about it.

Related to the Musgrave bit above, she is releasing her own identity ad in response. The ad includes a picture of her with Sen. Ken Salazar and Rep. Mark Udall. Why do extremist Republicans so desperately want the public to think they’re Democrats? Because their policies have failed and the public knows it. What happened to the courage of your convictions, Marilyn?

Conservatives always try to make a big deal about out of state special interests affecting votes in Colorado. Funny then, the continued silence on oil and gas corporations’ donating millions to defeat Amendment 58. Money is only bad when its being donated to liberal issues. Colorado lets fuel corporations keep more tax money that they owe than any other state, including those immediately around us. Oil and gas corporations should pay what they legally owe to the state. While Coloradans continue to pay $3.75 for every gallon of gas, oil corporations have written $1,000,000 checks to whine about how horrible paying their fair share would be.

Betsy Markey Making Moves in CO-04

Betsy Markey leads Marilyn Musgrave in the most recent polling done on Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.  I place some faith in this poll results because of two factors.  First, Markey has performed well in polling to date.  Second, the NRCC has announced a $1 million time reservation for ad buy.  This action is also in response to the DCCC’s $667,000 previously announced ad buy.

The CO-04 race has been high on the target list of Democrats all this cycle.  Republicans recognize one of their most extreme Representatives is in real danger of losing her seat.  So they’re pouring everything they can into the race to try and drag Markey down and squeak through another win this November.  Musgrave’s 51% unfavorable rating won’t help her chances any.

Go Betsy!

McCain’s Bad Water Policy, Bob Schaffer’s Oil Problems, Marilyn Musgrave’s Oil Problems

Does John McCain want Arizona and California to have more access to Colorado River water, leaving other western states without?  He’ll have to contend with millions of Colorado voters to get anywhere near such a policy.  My hunch is Coloradans won’t like the idea too much.

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Bob Schaffer, perpetually trailing Rep. Mark Udall in polling throughout the cycle, continues to desperately search for anything that might decrease Udall’s chances.  The latest charge: Udall wants to increase the gas tax by 50 cents per gallon.  It’s untrue, of course, but when you’re behind, you attack your opponent.

Bob Schaffer had the gall to tell reporters after their 2nd debate that oil corporations have a small margin of profit.  Raise your hand if you think they should get a larger margin becuase Schaffer is arguing that $11.68 billion in just three months is too small.

Mark Udall, in contrast, wants to stop the corporate welfare going to Exxon and others and instead provide money for renewable energy ventures so we can end our dependence on fossil fuels.  Which is only one reason why Udall continues to hold a lead in the Colorado Senate race.

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Marilyn Musgrave thinks her record and efforts to lower the price of gas for families in Colorado should help get her reelected this year.  That’s a novel approach because since her first election, gas prices have increased from $1.50 per gallon to over $4.00 per gallon this year.  What exactly has she down to lower prices?  Billions of dollars in corporate welfare to oil corporations didn’t work.  Invading and occupying a major oil supplier didn’t work.  Voting against every pro-renewable energy bill and amendment didn’t work.  Enough already, Marilyn.  You haven’t represented your constituents for years.  It’s time for Betsy Markey.

Marilyn Musgrave is 100% anti-renewable energy

Marilyn Musgrave‘s (R, CO-04) support of fossil fuels (and their support in return) and her lock-step voting according to White House wishes isn’t in dispute. To take just a small example, how did Marilyn vote on clean, alternative energy sources in this most recent session of Congress?

She voted against the repeal of oil subsidies in Jan. 2007. She voted against an amendment that would require utilities to produce at least 15% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 in Aug. 2007, despite the fact that Coloradans overwhelmingly passed a similar measure just the year before. She voted against amending the IRS code to provide tax incentives for renewable energy and energy conservation in Aug. 2007, Dec. 2007 and then a third time in May of 2008. Those votes came a few years after she voted to give oil and gas corporations billions in tax breaks. Marilyn has one major love: Big Energy.

In 2006, Marilyn got the biggest scare of her political life by narrowly defeating Angie Paccione to maintain her seat in the House. During that political cycle, energy costs to her constituents were going up. They’ve gone up even faster since that election. Has Marilyn changed her voting pattern since then, as her public relations team would have us believe? Of course not. Her love for big donations and Bush’s wrong-headed energy policies is just too strong. It’s those policies that have caused our record energy prices this year. It’s those policies that have helped lead our economy to recession.

That’s it, plain and simple.  Marilyn hasn’t voted to help develop our renewable energy resources at all during this Congress.

That’s some of the bad news. Here is the good news: Betsy Markey is running against Marilyn Musgrave. If elected, Betsy would more ably represent the 4th Congressional District of Colorado. Those folks are more impacted by record energy prices (while Exxon and others enjoy record profits) than they are by a Federal Marriage Amendment (to the Constitution!), as Marilyn has introduced every Congress.

As I said before, Marilyn nearly lost her seat in 2006. If national Democratic organizations had helped like they said they would, the story might have been different. But that’s water under the bridge. This year, Betsy Markey is getting help from those organizations. It’s Marilyn that is without assistance, a far cry from 2006 when she had major financial support from national Republican organizations. Democrats have also been hard at work organizing themselves in CO-04 for a number of years. Betsy Markey is going to benefit greatly from the motivated grassroots of eastern Colorado. Here are some resources to help Betsy out:

Betsy Markey’s campaign website

Betsy Markey’s facebook page

Betsy Markey’s ActBlue page

Random Linkies 7/17/08

Imagine the chances: energy companies contaminated water in wells by Parachute, CO and made someone sick. At the same time, the companies are heavily lobbying the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to not adopt rules that would include environmental controls. Now, why would they fight against those kinds of rules, I wonder…

The EPA released a Global Warming and Health report. I’ll give you one guess who stymied its release. That’s correct: the Bush “administration”, which has worked hard to deny and delay such information from being relayed properly to Americans.

“Risk (to human health, society and the environment) increases with increases in both the rate and magnitude of climate change,” scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency said. Global warming, they wrote, is “unequivocal” and humans are to blame.

Betsy Markey and Marilyn Musgrave debated recently. Betsy isn’t letting Marilyn get away with any b.s. charges. It’s probably part of the reason why Betsy is doing a better job of fundraising than Marilyn. That and Marilyn is a hate-monger who refuses to accomplish much for her district.

Xcel estimates that about 47,000 of its customers will have their power cut off due to missed payments. Let’s see, the price of energy hasn’t gone down in what, seven years. Our take home pay hasn’t gone up in the same time-frame. And Republicans think folks like this are just a bunch of whiners. Being unable to pay for your electricity is a result of immoral conservative economic policies. Which is why they’re losing elections these days.

Colorado Political News 6/24/08

First up: the Colorado Senate race. Republican Bob Schaffer has been busy trying to explain his past associations and actions away since announcing. From a growing mound of evidence demonstrating his connections to the ethically corrupt Jack Abramoff and his support for sweatshops and forced abortions to not being able to recognize the difference between Pikes Peak and Mt. McKinley (which is in Alaska, Bob), things have been busy. Now another piece of Bob’s past is coming back to haunt him.

A Republican activist from Aurora who pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor in connection with a larger fraud prosecution was sentenced Monday to a year’s probation and a $3,450 fine. Scott Shires, 55, faced up to a year in prison after pleading guilty to filing false tax returns in connection with a case against his one-time employer, Octane International Limited, which purported to be making an alternative-fuel additive. Shires is well connected in GOP circles in Colorado and recruited Bob Schaffer to be a board member of Octane International in 2004.

Part of the problem here: Bob Schaffer first said he hadn’t been compensated for his services as a board member. Turns out, he did. But Bob left his income from Octane off of a 2007 campaign disclosure form. Rank-and-file Republicans might want to take a closer look at their party’s leadership: the propensity to volunteer and donate doesn’t seem to happen too much up at the top. Given Republican officials constant charges aimed at Democrats, it seems they know best what elitism really is.

[Update] Another poll shows Mark Udall with the same 9-point lead over Bob Schaffer that a Rasmussen poll showed earlier.  This poll has Udall up 46%-37%.  Considering the only ads that have gone out have been generic, introductory-style, I don’t see things getting better for Schaffer any time soon.

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Second: Colorado’s 4th Congressional District (CO-04). Democrat Betsy Markey is targeting Marilyn Musgrave’s seat. Previously, the DCCC had announced it is including Markey in their Red to Blue program. In 2006, “Red to Blue” raised an average of over $400,000 per candidate. Expect that number to grow this year with the increased focus and energy on the poor state of our nation. Now, word comes that environmental groups are also planning on targeting CO-04, possibly to the tune of $500,000 by themselves. The group spent $1.5 million to oust the ethically challenged Republican Richard Pombo of California in 2006 (does anyone see a pattern here?).

Marilyn Musgrave has been a very loyal pro-oil and gas voter while in Congress (for tax breaks for large corporations & against increased gas mileage for vehicles). After her very narrow win in 2006, she has made a concerted effort to change her image. Which sort of makes her actions even more out of step with Coloradans. We don’t tend to like hypocrites.

Add in what Betsy Markey herself will raise, a competitive Senate seat and a competitive Presidential contest and a whole lot of money will likely be spent in Colorado this year.

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Third: Citizens are asking the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to not issue one-size-fits-all rules that they are considering for oil and gas drilling. Conditions aren’t the same around the state, they argue, and so any rules they develop should reflect that. I don’t know all the ins and outs of their individual cases or how the proposed rules would impact them, but on the surface I tend to agree with their statement. We’ll see how the rules are eventually implemented. What I don’t think is that if the rules are implemented, oil and gas industries will collapse in Colorado.

Marilyn Musgrave: Return Big Oil Donations

From ProgressNow, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R CO-04) wrote a column yesterday in which she claimed to be taking on “Washington” and Big Oil. Considering her record on this issue, her claim leaves a lot to be desired. ProgressNow provided a short list of Big Oil-related votes from Rep. Musgrave:

2003: Musgrave voted for the Energy Plan that provided $18.7 billion in tax breaks for the oil industry. (House Vote 145 HR 6, 4/11/03)

2005: Musgrave voted for the 2005 Energy Bill that contained $14.5 billion in tax breaks for the oil industry.(HR 6 Roll Call Vote 445, 7/28/05; Congressional Research Service)

2005: Musgrave voted against raising average fuel economy of automobiles from 25 miles-per-gallon to 33 mpg. (Roll Call 121, HR 6, 2/20/2005)

2006: Musgrave voted for extending the Bush Tax Cuts that included $5 billion in tax breaks for the oil industry. (House Vote 135, HR 4297, 5/10/2006, CQ Floor Votes; Washington Post, 4/26/06)

2007: Musgrave voted against a new energy policy that limited tax breaks for big oil. The resulting revenue would have been deposited into a new renewable energy account for research. (House Vote 1177, 12/18/07)

Back in 2003, a barrel of oil traded for what, $40. Now, it’s $136. A gallon of gas cost less than $2.00. Now it’s over $4.00. Exxon posted a $40.66 billion profit last year, just one of many oil corporations. Despite the corporate welfare Marilyn voted to give those corporations, they haven’t spent a dime on constructing a new refinery in 30 years. In fact, the number of refineries operating in the U.S. has halved in that time frame. Just so you know, Rep. Musgrave’s column neglected to mention she has received $165,000 in campaign contributions from the oil industry, and Exxon has been the largest contributor.

Marilyn has been on a mission since 2006 when she almost lost her reelection bid to Angie Paccione to reform her image. She has spent more time in the district in the past year than she did in the previous four. She desperately wants to avoid being held responsible for things like gas prices. ProgressNow has called on Rep. Musgrave to return donations from the oil industry. If she is really ready to take on Washington and Big Oil, this would be a really easy way to demonstrate that.

Betsy Markey over Marilyn Musgrave in Poll (May 2008)

A poll done by Bennett, Petts & Normington has Democratic candidate Betsy Markey up over Marilyn Musgrave 43-36 with a 4.9% MOE. Yes it’s early, yes the sample size was fairly small (400 respondents). Yes a Musgrave campaign poll had Musgrave up 47-42 a couple months back. Although I must say that a three-term incumbent “showcasing” a poll where she only garnered 47% is pretty pathetic, especially considering the district’s voting pattern. Yes it’s only May and November is quite a ways off.What this poll results shows is that Marilyn Musgrave is in trouble again this year. She’s going to have to work her butt off raising money and actually spending time in the district if she hopes to stave off another challenger. And this time around, the NRCC will have limited funds to bail her out.

Two additional, important notes about the poll: Political affiliations for respondents were intended to match the GOP-leaning district: 40 percent Republican, 31 percent unaffiliated and 29 percent Democrats.A majority, 51 percent,of voters gave Musgrave a job rating of “not so good” or “poor” while only 40 percent rate the job she is doing in Congress as “excellent” or “good”. Combined with Musgrave’s lackluster polling results, the job rating results seem to me to signify an incumbent in trouble. More Republican-leaning districts have already fallen this year. Folks know which party started the Iraq occupation and led the economy into a recession. They know that party isn’t offering solutions to the problems they face. All they’re doing is name-calling and finger-pointing. Republicans have pointed out for numerous cycles how common-sensical rural voters in the West are. Those voters might just prove their point this year. As of March 31, the most recent date for which data are available, Musgrave had raised $1.38 million for her re-election and had $1 million on hand. Markey had raised $569,000 and had $376,000 available. Let’s help Betsy Markey close that financial gap. Let’s help Betsy win CO-04 this year and send a 5-2 (D-R) contingent to Congress next year.