How bad are things going to get? Where is the bottom to any of the markets? I don’t think we’re there yet, and that could be the worst news yet. August saw a 6.2% drop in housing starts, dropping to an annual rate of 630,000 units. That number is the smallest since 1991. Construction activity is 33% lower than it was a year ago. And yet Republican John McCain thinks our economic fundamentals are strong? It’s anything but for the vast majority of us. How is he going to fix the economy if he can’t see the problems with it in the first place? The next few months shouldn’t be any better as building permits fell 8.9% last month too.
Gone unreported so far, manufacturing has also taken a hit this year. The Empire State Manufacturing index has been negative for nearly a year. Also, industrial production has grown increasingly negative all this year. industrial capacity is being utilized at levels last seen in late 2005, down consistently since early 2007. Where are people going to get jobs if overall production is down? Businesses wait until there is demand to increase their worker numbers. We’ll be in the doldrums, at best, for some time to come.
The housing problems have, as we all know now, led to the biggest restructuring of the U.S. finance sector since the Great Depression. Bear Stearns was bailed out in March. Lehman is being piece-mealed for peanuts. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were brought back under government control, contrary to the belief of Republican Sarah Palin, who thought they already were (see my above comment regarding John McCain). Oops. Merrill Lynch was bought for pennies on the dollar. And now insurance giant AIG is getting a bridge loan from the Federal Reserve. Wait … doesn’t that mean that we’ve just nationalized another part of the financial system? Where are the Republican cries for capitalism and free markets? The Fed also decided yesterday to keep interest rates steady at 2%, keeping ridiculous amounts of cash flowing through the system. Is it really any wonder why inflation has been steadily growing this year?
The government is slowly starting to do something about the situation. What’s depressing is they didn’t do anything when the only news was sub-prime mortgage problems. Once prime mortgages started failing and housing prices started falling due to last year’s sub-prime foreclosures, the big, unregulated financial giants started writing their assets down. They had been gambling big time with people’s mortgages, trying to create profit where they shouldn’t have. They lost on their gambles and now Americans are losing their homes. Now that the big houses are discovering their assets are wroth far less than what they’ve been reporting, Wall St. has noticed. Following Monday’s 500 point DJIA drop, the Dow is down over 300 more points today. One year ago, the Dow sat at 14,000. Now, it’s at 10,750. And now, finally, the Republican’s government is doing something about it. Not when regular Americans were starting to lose their homes a year ago, but when millionaires and billionaires are seeing their portfolios shrink.
These problems were accurately predicted by more than a few people as far back as five years ago. Corrective action could have taken place even then. But greed was rampant and rich people convinced themselves that they could write new rules for the system. Ideologues like George Bush and John McCain keep trying to convince Americans that everything is fine and under control. It was their failed economic policies that got us into this mess. There is no way they’ll get us out of it.
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[Update]: I guess if the FDIC runs out of money, that’s a sign of economic fundamentals’ strength, correct? It’s a good thing no one tried to help those sub-prime mortgage owners renegotiate their mortgages. I’m sure they’re learning their lessons now…