State of the Poles – 10/4/10

The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of October 2010 was once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent was far, far below average for this time of year.  The Antarctic sea ice extent wass above average, but not nearly so much as was the case in the Arctic.  Unfortunately, global sea ice extent fell to ~17.5 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008.  The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.

This post will mostly concentrate on the extremely poor conditions found in the Arctic this fall.  Antarctic conditions are not as extreme, largely and ironically thanks to the ozone hole over the continent which has kept stratospheric temperatures much cooler than they otherwise would be.  Eventually, our forcing leading to global warming will overwhelm the ozone hole cooling effect (and the ozone hole will gradually be “healed” anyway), which will cause long-term changes to Antarctica just like the Arctic.

State of the Poles – 9/7/10

The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of September 2010 is once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent is far, far below average for this time of year.  The Antarctic sea ice extent is above average, but not nearly so much as was the case at the beginning of August.  Unfortunately, global sea ice extent has fallen to ~18 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008.  The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.

Each month and each year that goes by provides additional proof that the Arctic has entered into a new state; a different state than has existed for 1,000 years or more.  Monthly and yearly weather conditions have varied considerably over the past few years, as one would expect, but the end result has been nearly the same regardless of any specific condition: Arctic sea ice is declining year-over-year.  It is declining at a rate that exceeds scientific estimates from just a few years ago.  Climate change deniers keep prattling on about increasing sea ice, in direct contradiction to the physical realities before them.  I think most of the areas that have sea ice this September will not have sea ice by 2020.  Specific weather or geologic events might delay the year that occurs slightly, but I don’t think it will take too much longer to witness an Arctic Ocean that is essentially ice-free.

State of the Poles – 8/7/10

The state of global polar sea ice in July 2010 is somewhat poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008).  The Arctic ice extent once again finds itself far below average extent for this time of year.  In contrast, the Antarctic sea ice extent remains significantly above average conditions.  Given those two quite different stories, the fact that global sea ice extent has once again fallen below 19  million sq. km., just as it has the past five consecutive years and eight out of the past nine, speaks to the dangerously poor condition of Arctic sea ice.

A quick aside: it’s not just the regions north of 60 that are experiencing ridiculous warmth this year.  As I’ll detail further in my upcoming post on the NASA & NOAA global temperature datasets, numerous areas across the Northern Hemisphere have experienced record breaking heat this summer.  Washington D.C. has witnessed its warmest June-July on record.  Moscow has experienced its warmest temperatures on record, while massive wildfires rage across the Russian countryside – burning both forests and peat bogs (all of which releases even more CO2 into the atmosphere).  All-time record temperatures for country after country has fallen this year – further speaking to the dead seriousness of climate change’s effects now beginning to take hold.

State of the Poles – 7/7/10

The state of global polar sea ice in July 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Antarctic sea ice extent is rebounding very nicely from its Southern Hemispheric fall minimum. It has passed the climatological median as well as the +2 standard deviation (meaning there is much more ice than is normal for this time of year).  Heat isn’t simply making the east coast swelter this week.  At the same time that dozens of American cities set daily record highs, the Arctic sea ice extent continues to set calendar-day record lows. Conditions there are the worst on record for July, substantially beating out years such as 2006 and 2007 for record low extent throughout most of June, as this time series shows.

State of the Poles – 6/21/10

I didn’t issue this earlier this month because I was waiting for the NSIDC monthly report, which was issued during a well-deserved vacation.  I had originally written most of it to reflect conditions in early June, but apparently forgot to download the necessary graphics to complete the post.  As such, I’m updating some of it for conditions through yesterday, which have only grown worse in the Arctic region.  I’ll issue a similar post in early July to get back on my regular schedule.

The state of polar sea ice in mid-June 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000).  The Antarctic sea ice extent is rebounding very nicely from its Southern Hemispheric fall minimum.  It has passed the climatological median and is approaching the +2 standard deviation (there is much more ice than is normal for this time of year).  The Arctic sea ice extent is a different story altogether, however.  Conditions there are the worst on record for June, beating out years such as 2006 and 2007 for record low extent in recent days, as this time series shows.

State of the Poles – 5/5/10

The state of polar sea ice in April 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000), which strongly contrasts with the past few months when global conditions were below climatology.  As it has done this time of year for a few years in a row, the global sea ice extent increased to the point where it is near climatological values, as this graph demonstrates.  The anomalies observed in 2006 and 2007 become more obvious each time the globe’s sea ice increases in March/April.

State of the Poles – 4/7/10

The state of polar sea ice in March 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000), which strongly contrasts with the past few months when global conditions were below climatology.  As it has done this time of year for a few years in a row, the global sea ice extent increased to the point where it is near climatological values, as this graph demonstrates.  The anomalies observed in 2006 and 2007 become more obvious each time the globe’s sea ice increases in March.  The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15.25 million sq. km., compared to 15.75 million sq. km. normally.

State of the Poles – 3/3/2010

I’ve waited until the NSIDC released their Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis report for February instead of posting something one month after my last post, then waiting for the NSIDC’s report to fill in some of the blanks in my discussion.  From now on, I’ll wait for their reports to come out before posting.

The state of polar sea ice in February 2010 is bad compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000).  The global sea ice extent continues to track well below climatological values, as this graph demonstrates.  The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15.5 million sq. km., compared to 16 million sq. km. normally.  That’s a recovery of 500,000 sq. km. from January, but still below average conditions.  As I wrote last month, the last two times the annual minimum didn’t fall below climatological norms were in 2008 and 2004.  In a nutshell, the annual minimum extent has shifted in behavior in a significant way in the last decade.

State of Polar Ice – 1/25/09

The state of polar sea ice in late January 2010 is bad compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000).  For the fifth time in the past six years, the global sea ice extent minimum has fallen well below climatological values, as this graph demonstrates.  The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15 million sq. km., compared to 16 million sq. km. normally.  The last two times the annual minimum didn’t fall below climatological norms were in 2008 and 2004.  In a nutshell, the annual minimum extent has shifted in behavior in a significant way in the last decade.

State of the Arctic (Poles) – 12/30/09

The state of the Arctic sea ice in late December 2009 remains the 2nd worst of any recorded December. The areal extent of sea ice continues to be well below the climatological average, and as it has for most of 2009, significantly below the negative 2nd standard deviation of the 1979-2000 area. The areal extent of Arctic sea ice continues to be anomalously low, as it has for well over a year now. The Hudson Bay has finally iced over. The late freeze this year was due to anomalously warm waters in the Bay in 2009. The Barents Sea remains relatively ice-free for this time of year. Remember, the Arctic Ocean hasn’t seen sun in a couple of months now.

The state of the Antarctic sea ice in late December 2009 is less disturbing. After reaching a high value of ~19 million sq. km. back in late September, the 2009 melt season exceeded that of the 2008 season. That trend shifted slightly as December drew to a close – the areal extent has increased from the 1979-2000 average to the positive 2nd standard deviation. The exact value of areal extent in 2009 remains below the value measured in 2008 by a small amount. The trend found in December is likely due to this year’s storms: both tracks and intensities vary year to year.

Globally, the extent of sea ice in 2009 continued the trend seen throughout the Aught’s: anomalously low extent, as seen in this graph. There were only a handful of times when global ice extent was significantly above the climatological average these past 10 years and none had the magnitude of the record low extents seen in 2007 and 2008. When viewed in the long term, it is clear to see that the state of the poles has shifted in the past 10 years. The majority of that state change has been in the Arctic.