Quick Hit: Ice Sheet Melt Picks Up

I’ve encountered folks writing or saying that the globe and/or poles are actually cooling and that melting glaciers are completely natural and people aren’t influencing them significantly.  The truth (based on actual observations) is that the poles have warmed more than the rest of the globe.  The truth is that the land-based ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are melting at faster rates than they did during the 20th century.  Those land-based ice sheets are what will cause sea level rise to reach dangerous rates and levels unless we do everything we can today to slow down their melt rate.

From an MSNBC article:

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are melting faster than expected, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, an expert with the Center for Ice and Climate at the University of Copenhagen, told the Arctic Council conference in the Arctic town of Tromsoe.

The 2007 IPCC report issued a sea level rise forecast of a couple of feet – at worst.  Observations since that report was issued, including ones Ms. Dahl-Jensen are basing her warning on, are outpacing the rates that were in the 2007 IPCC report.  The only 2-year old forecast of a couple of feet of sea level rise (in itself catastrophic for geopolitical stability) is already an antique.  More realistic levels based on rates seen in the past two years point toward 5-foot sea level rise, which would be even more devastating to global societies and ecosystems.

Climate Change News: NYC’s Steps & Alaskan Erosion

New York City can’t afford to pooh-pooh climate change.  How much infrastructure is within a few feet elevation of sea level?  How much is that infrastructure worth?  Billions?  Trillions?  Recognizing this, NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg requested a report from the NYC Panel on Climate Change to provide one of the first detailed examinations into how a specific location could be affected by a climate system being forced by people.  The report that came back identified some interesting items.  It was based on the 2007 IPCC Report (more on this in a moment).  Thankfully, Bloomberg knows that waiting is not an option for a metropolitan area.  There are too many things to take care of and the timeline before they’re affected is moving up.  The time for action is now when options can be discussed and fleshed out, prior to the time when events move to crisis level.  Another point to be made is that at this time, few municipalities are seriously studying the potential risks involved with climate change.  As New York begins to grapple with the situation, lessons in improving and moving infrastructure will be learned.  Other places will be able to benefit from those lessons.  After all, it will take billions of dollars and years of effort to fortify our infrastructure from rising seas and stronger storm systems.  The sooner we start, the cheaper it will end up being.

Some of the reports’ findings:

The report predicts average annual temperatures will increase by 4 to 7.5 degrees Fahrenheit and extreme events such as heat waves, intense rain, droughts and coastal flooding will become more frequent and more intense.

Coastal floods that are now expected occur once every 10 years could occur once every three years and floods that occur once in a century could begin to occur once in every 15 to 35 years, the report said.

According to the U.N. panel, global temperatures are likely to rise by between 2 and 11.5 degrees F and sea levels by between 7 inches and 23 inches this century.

I will once again point out that at the time of the 2007 IPCC Report, lots of good information was used.  Unfortunately, many signals from the climate system since then have indicated that climate change is occurring faster than even the most pessimistic model used for the IPCC Report.  The predictions made by the report to policy makers were out-of-date right after their initial issuance.  That’s not indicative of anything wrong with the process.  It is indicative that policy makers need to view the IPCC recommendations through the correct lens.  Those recommendations should operate as a baseline or floor, not as a ceiling.  Policy makers need to stay on top of the latest science results that have come out since the 2007 IPCC Report and base their policies on those updated results, not the results from years ago.

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In a similar vein, a news report came out regarding coastal erosion in the Alaskan Arctic.  The rate of erosion along a stretch of coast recently doubled from previous rates.  The erosion could be tied to declining Arctic sea ice extent, rising sea level, and stronger storms and waves, all of which are associated with climate change.

The details: Average annual erosion rates along the area studied had already climbed from about 20 feet (6.1 m) per year during the 1950, 60s and 70s to 28 feet (8.5m) per year in the period from the late-1970s to the early 2000s. The most recent erosion rates reached an average of 45 feet (14 meters) per year during the 2002 to 2007 period, said Benjamin Jones, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Anchorage.  They also documented sections of coastline that eroded more than 80 feet (24 meters) during 2007 alone.

45 feet per year is pretty significant.  Just like New York, infrastructure is being affected in addition to the land itself.  The difference is clear, of course: northern Alaska isn’t New York City.  But the effects of a changing climate are already here.  They will only get more numerous and more significant as time goes on.  We must stop forcing the climate system with our greenhouse gas emissions – today, not tomorrow.

Climate Change Effects Come Further Into Focus

As the science over the cause of climate change has become increasingly solidified, many researchers are expanding their examination of the effects of climate change.  Among other examples, some recent items of note include:

North American bird species are wintering further north. An Audubon Society study conclusively shows that hundreds of species of birds are spending winters further north in recent winters than they did 40 years ago.  Climate change has affected northern latitudes more than the mid-latitudes and tropics: they’ve grown warmer faster than any other region.  Migratory birds’ wintering patterns have been shifted.

Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse.  An important study that came out in last Friday’s issue of Science looks more closely at how sea levels around the world would be impacted if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapsed.  Contrary to the incomplete assessment that was part of the 2007 IPCC Report, sea level rise won’t be equitable across the globe.  Due to gravitational effects and uplift as ice mass disappears from land surfaces, oceans bordering North America and in the Indian Ocean could rise ~30% higher than previously assumed.  For instance, the IPCC forecasted a 5m sea level rise for areas near Washington, D.C.  The new assessment indicates a sea level rise of  6.3m (1.3m more) due to additional effects.

Okay, I’m going to bring up a couple of short-comings of this study, one of which the authors identified.  This assessment did not take into account the Greenland, East Antarctic or mountain ice sheets.  Anything that causes the collapse of the WAIS will undoubtedly also cause collapses elsewhere across the globe.  Thus, that 6.3m sea level rise for Washington, D.C. could easily go much, much higher.  The authors acknowledge that serious concerns about the impact on coastal communities is increased as a result of this study, not decreased.  Second, the authors compare their assessment to the IPCC’s.  As I’ve written before, recent observations from across the planet indicate that every model used in the 2007 IPCC Report underestimated recent climate change.  The poles are warming faster than any model used indicated.  Climate zones are shifting faster.  Drought areas are expanding further.  Birds’ wintering areas are shifting north sooner.  CO2 concentrations are higher and positive feedback mechanisms have been initiated.  This doesn’t mean the results of this Science paper are invalid, only that the specific sea level rise number used for contrast is already out of date.  Policy makers must be made aware of the most recent valid research, like this paper.  The challenge facing researchers is being able to provide robust, comprehensive assessments so that strong policies can be created.

Weeds will appear in new areas and disappear in others.  Land managers could have a short period of time to reintroduce native plants in areas that have been taken over by invasive species.  The biggest question is where will precipitation fall most often.

Hurricanes’ roles in influencing Northern Hemispheric winters are being explored.  The view that hurricanes are important in maintaining the balances the atmosphere works toward in much the same fashion as mid-latitude cyclones (think of the low pressure systems that typically move west to east) has gained traction in recent years.  This article describes another effort at working to determine how that mechanism compares to mechanisms like El Nino.