The fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season formed earlier this week off the west coast of Africa. T.S. Dorian is moving west under the influence of a strong mid-level ridge. He encountered cool sea-surface temperatures a couple of days ago. While over warming waters since then, high vertical wind shear and dry, stable air to his north encumbered him since then, which kept his strength at Tropical Storm status. Dorian is a compact tropical system and currently has no banding features on satellite imagery.
The National Hurricane Center’s official track forecast keeps Dorian south of 20N through the weekend as he approaches the Lesser Antilles from the northeast. By Monday morning, the NHC’s current forecast has Dorian north of Puerto Rico as a Tropical Storm. The forecast then shows Dorian north of the Dominican Republic Tuesday morning and just off-shore eastern Cuba Wednesday morning. By Wednesday, the track uncertainty cone extends from Jamaica (south of Cuba) to the Bahamas (north of Cuba and east of southern Florida). The official intensity forecast keeps Dorian at Tropical Storm strength through Wednesday.
Any impacts to the United States, if there are any, will not occur until the second half of next week.