Comments on: Call for Climate Change-Policy Paradigm Shift

By: Byron Smith

Byron Smith — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 11:05:07 +0000

Thanks for your reply.

In globalised world, failed states have a systemic effect, increasing strain not just on their neighbours (refugees, spill-over conflict, lost trade), but on the system as a whole. A globalised system can handle a few failed states, but only at the cost of placing all other states under greater stress. There is a limit to the number of failed states the system will be able to handle. I am not sanguine about the capacity of developed nations to weather the coming storm if we stay on our present trajectory. The disruptions to natural systems likely associated with 4+ºC are immense. No nation will be “just fine”, and if there are a more failed states (very likely), then this is going to affect everyone.

So, yes, some fairly slow marginal improvements in the massive US emissions is a kind of good news, but even the current rates of decline (which are not 20% or anything near it) are (a) partially dependent on weather (mild winters); (b) based on structural changes that will only go so far and (c) most importantly, still *way* too slow.

By: weatherdem

weatherdem — Sat, 13 Oct 2012 20:42:08 +0000

Byron-
Thanks for commenting. I agree that coal extraction has not stopped in the US and that other countries are burning it. The large scale switch to natural gas in the US is noteworthy and in a climate sense is a good thing. A 20% reduction in emissions is a 20% reduction. I actually view this trend as likely to be sustained in the long term as additional efficiencies are worked on and new technologies come to market.

I somewhat agree with your last statement. The industrial societies with survive the upcoming changes just fine. There will be shifts in lifestyle, to be sure, but advanced societies will not just collapse. We simply have too much technology for this to happen. That leaves developing nations as the ones likeliest to be seriously impacted by climate change. One strategy then is to help develop their societies as much as possible before that. There is plenty of warming on the way – how much and the extent of the downscale effects remains in our power to decide.

By: Byron Smith

Byron Smith — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 11:08:39 +0000

Furthermore, while coal combustion has declined markedly in the US, coal extraction has not followed suit, meaning that the excess coal is now exported to Europe and (increasingly) China.

While the recent US reductions have been the largest in absolute terms, in relative terms (which make more sense since the US is such a large nation), it lags a long way behind many European nations, and as the previous comment pointed out, there is little to suggest that the reductions will be sustained.

Saying that we have to remain within the current failed growth paradigm is to ensure that we will warm by 3, 4 or more degrees C, which is very likely incompatible with a complex globalised industrial society of seven, eight, nine billion.

By: State of the Poles – Mid-September 2012: Record Low Arctic Ice Extent; Antarctic Ice Above Climatological Normal « Weatherdem’s Weblog

Sat, 22 Sep 2012 17:09:39 +0000

[...] situation will not be reversed by paradigm shifts that are anything but. A good place to start would be designing carbon markets for success and [...]

By: Guest

Guest — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 23:51:14 +0000

The low U.S. gas price seems to be a blip. Shale gas has recently been selling at below its cash production cost largely due to the use-it-or-lose-it leases and the need to book big reserves to raise cash.

http://blog.rmi.org/blog_hot_air_about_cheap_natural_gas

For this reason, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. CO2 emissions will continue to decline at the rate stated in your blog.

What’s more the main reason for the decline in recent emissions is due to a mild winter, not the switch from coal to gas…

http://co2scorecard.org/home/researchitem/25

More warm winters might help keep emissions down, but the extra air con demand from hot summers will cancel out some or most of the gains.