On the heels of the warmest July in Denver’s history, the first five days of August were also warmer than normal. Due to a cool front that made its way through the metro area Friday night, Saturday’s high temperature was only 83°F. Sunday was just as warm as Friday, however, with highs of 97°F and 98°F, respectively.
Through the first five days of the month, the average high has been 93.0°F. The average temperature over those five days was 77.1°F – a clear reflection of how relatively cool Saturday’s temperatures were. The departure from normal tracked above 4°F, but is only 2.7°F now. You can bet that departure reading will edge back up toward 4°F given the lack of weather systems on the horizon.
I still think Denver’s 100°F+ days are likely over for 2012. Despite my knowledge of future climate projections for the area, I sincerely hope 100°F+ days remain rare in my personal future. As many other cities across the US can attest, 100°F+ days are simply miserable, in addition to being dangerous to people’s’ health.
The Denver area continues to experience Severe to Extreme drought conditions (see figure below). I don’t think the last week’s rains will make a serious dent in those conditions.
Figure 1. Drought conditions across Colorado as of July 31, 2012. The orange contour indicates Severe drought conditions; the red contour indicates Extreme drought conditions; the brick-red contour indicates Exceptional drought conditions.
In the past couple of weeks, conditions have shifted spatially but haven’t worsened substantially. Some areas have actually seen slight relief from Extreme to Severe conditions. This is a shift from three months ago when, as the table in the figure shows, 0% of the state experienced Extreme conditions while 65-73% of the state experienced similar conditions in the past two weeks. Weather conditions over the next few weeks will determine the level of drought the state experiences.
Consecutive 90°F-day streaks
Saturday’s high of only 83°F (which felt fantastic!) also stopped the streak of consecutive 90°F+ days from early July through early August at 24. Once the NCDC confirms the temperatures, this streak will match the longest streak in Denver’s history, first set from July 13th through August 5th, 2008. Denver’s earlier streak of 15 consecutive 90°F+ days should tie for 5th on the all-time list.
Total 90°F+ Days
The record for total 90°F+ days in one calendar year is also in serious trouble. Through the 5th of August (yesterday), Denver had already recorded 50 such days in 2012 (2 in May, 17 in June, 27 in July, and 4 in August). That is enough days to tie for 9th on the all-time list. It seems incredible to someone who has lived in the area for a long time, but the all-time record of 61 90°F+ days seems easy to reach at this point in 2012. Denver has already surpassed 90°F today, and the NWS predicts similar highs for the next four days. That will mark 55 90°F+ days, good for a tie for the 4th most 90°F+ days and only 6 days from the all-time mark. The GFS model provides a glimpse for days beyond Friday and the pattern might change over the upcoming weekend: 90°F is the forecasted high for both days. Given recent history, I can easily envision highs of 91°F or 92°F, but I look forward to days that can no longer climb above 90°F.