Why We Can’t Trust Insurance Companies To Keep Costs Down

Because when they have the opportunity, they spend millions of dollars of Americans’ premiums to maintain the shitty status quo:

A campaign finance watchdog’s analysis of insurance and HMO political contributions and lobbying expenses found the industries spent $126,430,438 over the first half of 2009 and $585,725,712 over the past two and a half years to influence public policy and elected officials. The group, Public Campaign Action Fund, found that in the first part of 2009, the industries were spending money at nearly a $700,000 a day clip to influence the political process and that the monthly pace of political spending this year has increased by nearly $400,000 over the average spent per month in the previous two years.

CorporateDems and Republicans are equally sought after by these immoral corporations.

How much health care could have been provided for $126 Million?

How much health care could have been provided for Half A Billion dollars?

Guess what, America – those of us with health insurance – we paid that money so the corporations can keep their monopoly on the market.  There’s no competition.  There’s not enough care going on (way too much management!).  The crap in Congress?  Health insurance “reform”, not health care reform.  There is a critical difference.

So the next time your premiums are increased by a double-digit percentage, you know exactly where the money is going.  To prevent reform of the system.

Tell me again why we’re so proud to have insurance middle-men get between us and our health care.

Spot-on Commentary About The 9/12 Events

This is one of the better write-ups I’ve found, from, who else, Hunter:

What does 9/11 have to do with taxes? With birth certificates? With any of the rest of the conspiracy theories that have so animated the dumb-as-a-post base, this last year? Nothing, to us, but everything to them. 9/11 is about America being “America”, and that means America doing whatever they say.

They saw 9/11 as, correctly, a fearsome thing that destroyed a little bit of our country — but in the town halls they’re far more concerned about “socialism” coming. It’s the same fear, to them. When they appear in front of the cameras with tears streaming down their faces and say “we just want our country back”, talking about whether the first black president is really even a citizen, or whether extending Medicare benefits to a 50-year-old would lead us down the road to Stalinism, they honestly fear those scary things every bit as much as they fear terrorists that they have never seen and that only attacked places in America that they hated anyway. They are that afraid of a black president, or of imaginary “death panels”. This is what animates them, as conservatives: the notion that everybody in America, from the spanish-speaking couple down the street to the unfathomable government, is a threat to them and their tiny tribe of like-minded believers.

The Cons are all about fear.  If they can no longer project their fear on the rest of Americans and get the response they think they deserve, they’ll hold their own dang event where they can scream and carry around hate- and fear-based signs, thank you very much.

At this point, the extremist right-wingers are in full control of much of the Republican Party.  These are the knuckleheads that ConveraDems and Blue Dogs are trying to appease and  “negotiate” with and triangulate with.  I’ll say it again: when “the other side” wants you dead, there’s no negotiating with it.

Once the moderate Republicans take their party back over, Democrats should fully engage them on the issues.  Until then, the rump needs to be ignored.

How Climate Change is Affecting Arctic Ecology

A study examining how climate change is affecting arctic ecological dynamics was published in last Friday’s edition of the journal Science.  When scientists and activists state that the Arctic has warmed significantly beyond what the rest of the planet has yet experienced, thanks to human-forced climate change, climate change denyers and action delayers often respond with the unintelligent, “So what?”.  Well, this study is one of the first to address the “so what” in a really systematic, meaningful way.  Empirical data is being sought and reported on.  And the prognosis isn’t good.

From the study’s abstract [emphasis mine]:

Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/10/09

Sorry for the break in posts.  A technical workshop was on tap at work this week and preparations had to be made.  All that is over, so I expect to return to a more regular posting frequency.

The Atlantic hasn’t kept quiet this week.  The tropical wave I noted in my last Update was vigorous enough to develop into a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Hurricane and Major Hurricane in the past two and a half days.  That’s pretty impressive.  During that time, Fred moved around to the south and west of the Cape Verde Islands, where he resides now.  Here are Hurricane Fred’s vitals as of this evening:

Center located at 17.3N, 35.1W; moving N @ 5mph; maximum sustained winds of 90mph.

Those wind speeds were enough to make Fred a major hurricane, as I noted above.  At peak strength, Fred packed 105mph winds and had a minimum central pressure below 975mb.

So thus far in the Atlantic basin, we’ve seen one Tropical Depression, 4 Tropical Storms and 2 Major Hurricanes.  It is worth noting that both Hurricane Bill and Fred were Cape Verde Storms.  Fred intensified a large distance to the southeast that Bill did, but both strengthened out in the middle of nowhere.  In contrast, all of the Tropical Storms have formed much further west and for one reason or another, never managed to organize themselves enough to become hurricanes.

Hurricane Fred has dredged up a large volume of colder water as he ingested the warm surface waters off the Cape Verde Islands.  That should, all other things being equal, prevent another tropical wave from developing in the same area for a couple of weeks, regardless of the wave’s intensity coming off from Africa.

Hurricane Fred is forecasted to stall over the next few days, slowly losing strength as he does so.  He is moving in reaction to an upper-level trough moving from west to east to Fred’s north.  Once it passes and the subtropical ridge builds back in, Fred should move off to the west again.  At that time, he is currently expected to be a remnant low with little chance of redevelopment.

Arctic Is Warmest In Over 2000 Years

Research conducted in the post-2007 IPCC 4AR world continues to demonstrate how much effect humans’ climate forcing is having.  The latest is an article in the prestigious journal Science, which shows that temperatures in the Arctic in the year 2000 were significantly higher than any temperature there in the past 2,000 years.  More strikingly, the temperature trend that was present for 1,900 years took a dramatic shift in the last 100 years of that time period.  Separate research has shown that the polar regions of Earth have warmed faster than any other part of the globe through the current day.  Though this study doesn’t address post-2000 Arctic temperatures, it is likely safe to assume that the multi-millenial trend identified in this Science study has only continued.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/4/09

Tropical Storm Erika decayed to a Tropical Depression yesterday and a remnant low today.  The center of circulation became detached from the convective thunderstorms, necessitating the change in status.  The thunderstorms continue to move west across the northeast Caribbean Sea.  There is a <30% chance of redevelopment in the next couple of days with the disturbance.

Much further east across the Atlantic Ocean, the tropical wave that moved from Africa to the Atlantic continues to look impressive.  The NHC has designated this disturbance as having a 30-50% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours.  It consists of a broad region of relatively low pressure and some thunderstorms.  A good amount of organization will have to occur before it becomes a Tropical Depression.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/2/09

There has been a small but fairly significant change to Tropical Storm Erika’s forecast.  But let’s start with her vitals:

Center located at 16.5N, 60.4W; moving W @ 10mph; maximum sustained winds of 40mph; minimum central pressure of 1008mb.

Tropical Storm Erika’s center location is just offshore a few of the northeast Windward Islands: Guadeloupe and Antigua are closest to her circulation.  That positioning is well to the west of where she was yesterday.  As such, the track forecast envelope that a suite of models has come up with is similarly shifted.  That, of course, has implications throughout the next five days.

Tropical Storm Erika’s official track forecast continues to brush the storm against numerous islands over the next couple of days.  Antigua, Montserrat, Barbuda, Saint Martin, Saint Croix, and Saint Thomas are all in or near the expected path of this Tropical Storm.  Thereafter, T.S. Erika should pass to the northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico Friday morning.  It is expected to continue moving northwest through Sunday, which would take the storm to the north of Hispanola, but over the Turks and Caicos Islands of the Bahamas.  Between Sunday and Monday, the official track forecast shifts the storm’s movement more to the NNW, keeping it to the east of other Bahama Islands.  That will likely take place Monday, all of which would be irrelevant if there is any short-term change to Erika’s path.

It should be noted that the official track forecast is on the northern portion of the model solution envelope.  Many models take Erika over Puerto Rico and Hispanola.  Interestingly, one model threads Erika by a series of islands, including between Cuba and Florida in the extended forecast.  I don’t buy this solution over any other – it’s just interesting.

The official intensity forecast is also interesting.  By Day 4, the NHC is calling for the storm to fall below Tropical Storm strength and continue along as a Tropical Depression instead.  This is because of the unexpected appearance of strong shear at upper-levels, which is making it difficult for Erika to establish outflow of rising air.  Compare this case to that of Bill, which developed excellent outflow early on, helping the system to intensify quickly.  A lot of factors have to come together at the same time for these systems to remain organized and intensify.

Elsewhere, the tropical wave that exited Africa over the weekend has dissipated.  No organized convection can currently be found where the disturbance was.  The next tropical wave transiting Africa is preparing to enter the far eastern Atlantic over the next day.  This wave is very vigorous – whether this continues over the ocean remains to be seen.  There is plenty of moist air surrounding this disturbance, but a rather intense shear environment is just to the disturbance’s north.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Update 9/1/09

[Update 3:00P MDT]: Tropical Storm Erika has formed.

The NHC had hurricane hunter aircraft investigate the tropical disturbance known as Invest-94 this afternoon.  They have reported that a broad-scale, but closed circulation was found.  Directly sampling the environment, they found sustained wind speeds of 50mph near the “center”.  This means the storm is a Tropical Storm.  The difficulty of ascertaining the storms’ characteristics from satellite data isn’t new – remote sensing will always have its disadvantages to go along with its advantages.

Tropical Storm Erika’s vitals are as follows: center located near 17.2N, 57.3W; moving WNW @ 9mph; maximum sustained winds of 50mph; minimum central pressure of 1007mb.

There isn’t any change in the official track forecast – it takes the storm to the north of the northeast Caribbean Islands the next few days.

Tropical Storm Erika should continue to be a Tropical Storm over the next few days as it fights some wind shear on the western side of the storm.

—–

Invest-94 stubbornly refuses to get enough organization and structure to be classified as a Tropical Depression or Storm.  Meanwhile, it draws closer to land forms in the western Atlantic Ocean.  Here is Invest-94′s vitals as of this morning:

“Center” located near 16.8N, 57.2W; moving WNW @ 9mph.

The tropical disturbance has gone through fits and starts of rather impressive thunderstorm development, but has suffered from a lack of a well-defined closed-off low pressure center.  Some mid-level shear influences are currently thought to be the cause of the lack of organization.

The official track forecast, such as it is, takes Invest-94 to the north of the Caribbean Islands, such as the northern Windward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispanola.  A wide spread in final position still exists for Days 4 and 5, when the system could be anywhere from north of the Bahamas on it way toward the Carolinas to just north of Hispanola, steering towards the southeastern Bahama Islands.

The official intensity forecast is as muddled as the track forecast.  Models continue to call for intensification, which hasn’t happened the past three or four days when the models were very excited about developing the storm.  Hurricane hunter aircraft are on the way today, and should shed more light on local storm conditions and help pin down exactly what’s spinning over the ocean.

The tropical wave that exited Africa yesterday is centered just east of the Cape Verde Islands.  The NHC has labeled the area of disturbed weather as an area of interest, giving it <30% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours.

So, a temporary lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic exists while Category 4 Hurricane Jimena bears down on the Mexican Baja peninsula.  Hopefully damage and lives lost are kept to a minimum there.