Tropical Storm Fay didn’t get much more organized overnight. She is still traveling along the southern coast of Cuba. Her center is located at 20.5N, 78.6W. She has maximum sustained winds of 50mph now, which is stronger than they were yesterday. Movement is WNW @ 12mph and her minimum pressure is 1003mb, which is still pretty high. It should be noted that Fay lacks a central core of convection, which relates to her relative disorganized characterization.
Her forecasted movement will still take her over Cuba in the next 24 hours. Her motion after that is still not very well agreed upon by the models. The difference from yesterday is the envelope of motion has been shifted to the west. That is to say, the eastern-most track now takes Fay over the peninsula of Florida after over-running the Keys. The western-most solutions take Fay through the Gulf with a landfall over the panhandle.
Better agreement rests with the intensity forecast. Fay is expected to be a strong Tropical Storm as she traverses Cuba. Once she moves over the Gulf of Mexico, she is expected to restrengthen and reach hurricane status in the 2-3 day time period. She is likely to make landfall on the U.S. as a hurricane, then. The longer she stays over open water, or the more westerly she moves, the stronger she is likely to become. The southern tip of Florida and the Keys are under a Tropical Storm warning. The bottom half of Florida is under a Hurricane Watch.
Farther out to sea, there are a couple of disturbances moving across the Atlantic, but they are unlikely to develop until they pass 40W.
