The three disturbances in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico haven’t changed much since yesterday. Starting from the most likely to impact the U.S. directly first:
Invest-91 is centered approximately at 28.3N, 88W. It’s moving W and has estimated sustained winds between 30 and 35mph. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to the system to determine if it has a closed surface circulation. If it does, it will be classified as a Tropical Depression. Model forecast tracks are in much better agreement today that the system will likely come ashore southwest of Galveston, TX. At what strength it does so remains to be seen. The NHC is giving it a >50% chance of developing to a T.D.
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[Update 4:15P MDT]: As expected, Invest-91 became organized enough to be considered a Tropical Depression this afternoon. Then it strengthened even more – we now have Tropical Storm Edouard in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a better fix on the central low, currently located at 28.1N, 88W, very close to the estimate from earlier. His sustained winds are now 45mph. Tropical Storm Edouard is expected to continue strengthening as he moves west at 6mph. For now, convection is largely limited to the southern portion of the storm. That will change as Edouard gains steam.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the eastern half of Louisiana’s southern coast. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the western half as well as the Texas coast to Port O’Connor (between Corpus Christi and Galveston). The entire Texas and Louisiana coasts are going to feel the brunt of this storm. Landfall is expected Tuesday in the late morning to early afternoon.
This storm has likely already caused the shut down of oil drilling and refining operations in the northern Gulf. That is bad news for oil for the next week.
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Invest-90 is centered at 11.6N, 34W. It’s also moving W and has estimated sustained winds of 30mph. Model track forecasts largely agree that the disturbance will pass over the Leeward Islands at about 15N in 3+ days. Model intensity forecasts indicate that could happen as a Tropical Storm or weak Category 1. I’m still not convinced the system will strengthen that much by that point in time. After entering the Caribbean Sea, the system is forecasted to take a NW track and could impact the island of Hispanola. Time will tell. The NHC has given this system a <20% chance of development.
Invest-99 moved further west yesterday than it did northwest. It’s current location is 19.3N, 52.4W. Currently, it’s also moving to the W and has estimated winds of about 30mph. It should begin moving toward the north-west in the next 12-24 hours, with a turn toward the north in 24-36 hours. Model intensity forecasts indicate that the system could strengthen quickly in 1-2 days. That is possible since it finds itself over warmer waters now (close to 80F) and a slightly more conducive wind shear profile. The NHC has given this system a 20-50% chance of development.
There is another cluster of storms moving off the west coast of Africa at about 9N.
Images of sea surface temperatures indicate a cool-pool where Hurricane Bertha slowed down south of Bermuda. Recent climate-hurricane research postulates that tropical storms act as energy distributors (high energy from the equator replacing low energy from the pole) in much the same way that mid-latitude systems we in the United States are used to experiencing do. In this case, warm surface waters were evaporated and then condensed in the atmosphere. This more or less transferred warmth from the equator pole-ward. Cooler sub-surface waters rose to replace what Bertha evaporated and both parts of the system were moderated. Interesting stuff.
