2/9/08 Caucus/Primary results

The following were my predictions on Friday and how they candidates fared (as of this morning):

Washington - Obama, not 2-1; Obama 68% - Clinton 31%, which was 2-1

Louisiana - Obama, 2-1; Obama 57% -Clinton 36 %, which was not 2-1

Nebraska - Obama, 2-1; Obama 68% -Clinton 32%, which was 2-1

Virgin Islands - Clinton (not 2-1); Obama 90% - Clinton 10%, which was way more than 2-1

*****So how’s my rough estimate of delegates holding up (since I didn’t do any more analysis or guessing after the initial post)?

Predicted Obama: 52+37+16=105

Predicted Clinton: 26+19+8=53

Estimated actual Obama: 35+33+16=84

Estimated actual Clinton: 15+22+8=45

Note all the delegates haven’t been assigned yet, but the broader pattern seems to agree with my predictions.

So what about the rest of the predicted states? I’m going to shift some numbers. My original guesses:

Maine - Clinton (not 2-1)

Maryland - Obama (2-1)

D.C. - Obama (2-1)

Virginia - Obama (2-1)

I think Clinton will likely win Maine, but by 53-46. Obama will carry Maryland 65-35, D.C. by 70-30 and Virginia 68-32. Let’s see how these pan out.

*****

Update: A few internet sources have delegate counts like this:

Washington– Obama 52, Clinton 26 (different than the 35-15 I listed above)

Nebraska– Obama 16, Clinton 8

Louisiana– Obama 32, Clinton 24

Thus the totals from yesterday could be: Obama 100 - Clinton 58

Obama’s take in Louisiana could be larger.  Official results will be available later this week.